| Description |
1 online resource (72 pages) : illustrations (some color) |
| Series |
Memorandum ; no. 131 |
|
JCSS memorandum ; no. 131
|
| Contents |
Introduction -- The model -- Case study : Egypt on the eve of the revolution (January 2011) -- Case study : Syria -- Case study : Saudi Arabia -- Case study : Iran -- Conclusion : assessment of regime stability |
| Summary |
The wave of uprisings that swept through Arab states in recent years has transformed the Middle East. Against this background, there is a need for a comprehensive analytical model to help assess both the likelihood of regime stability and the probability of regime change. This study proposes a model to identify the key elements that encourage or inhibit regime change. Assigning numerical weight to each of these elements, it analyzes the dynamics between them. Looking at case studies of four states through the prism of the proposed model, the authors examine the elements that led to the instability in Egypt of January 2011, explain why the Saudi Arabian and Iranian regimes are stable, and provide a better understanding of the struggle in Syria, pointing out factors that will be critical to the fate of the civil war |
| Notes |
"December 2013." |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 69-72) |
| Notes |
Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (INSS, viewed December 24, 2013) |
| Subject |
Political stability -- Case studies
|
|
Political stability -- Middle East -- Mathematical models
|
|
Political stability -- Mathematical models.
|
|
Political stability.
|
|
Middle East.
|
| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
Golov, Avner, author
|
|
Makhon le-meḥḳere biṭaḥon leʼumi, publisher
|
|
