| Description |
xviii, 208 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm |
| Series |
Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems, 0075-8442 ; 620 |
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Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems ; 620
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| Contents |
Contents note continued: 3.1.3 Market Uncertainty and Market Payoff -- 3.1.4 Value Function and Dynamic Program -- 3.1.5 Multidimensional State Space -- 3.1.6 Summary -- 3.2 Bayesian Updating -- 3.2.1 Basic Concepts of Bayesian Analysis and Inference -- 3.2.2 Mean Update -- 3.2.2.1 General Properties -- 3.2.2.2 Multidimensional Case -- 3.2.3 Variance Update -- 3.2.3.1 General Properties -- 3.2.3.2 Multidimensional Case -- 3.2.4 Mean and Variance Update -- 3.2.4.1 General Properties -- 3.2.4.2 Illustrative Numerical Example -- 3.2.4.3 Multidimensional Case -- 3.2.5 Summary -- 3.3 Information Updating Valuation Model -- 3.3.1 General Structure -- 3.3.1.1 Posterior Project Value -- 3.3.1.2 Expected Project Value -- 3.3.2 Value of Information -- 3.3.3 Optimal Updating Point in Time -- 3.3.4 Multidimensional State Space -- 3.3.5 Summary -- 4.1 Basic Properties -- 4.2 Properties for a Specific Signal -- 4.2.1 Posterior Project Value -- 4.2.1.1 Mean Change -- 4.2.1.2 Variance Change -- |
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Contents note continued: 4.2.1.3 Mean and Variance Change -- 4.2.2 Value of Information -- 4.3 Properties in Expectation of a Signal -- 4.3.1 Expected Project Value -- 4.3.2 Expected Value of Information -- 4.4 Summary -- 5.1 Analysis Framework -- 5.1.1 Base Case -- 5.1.2 Description of Experiments -- 5.2 Numerical Results and Comparative Statics -- 5.2.1 Analysis in Presence of a Specific Signal -- 5.2.1.1 Effects of a Mean or a Variance Update -- 5.2.1.2 Effects of a Simultaneous Mean-Variance Update -- 5.2.2 Analysis in Expectation of a Signal -- 5.2.2.1 Optimal Managerial Policy -- 5.2.2.2 Cost Structure Changes -- 5.2.2.3 Optimal Updating Point in Time -- 5.3 Summary -- 6.1 Contribution to Current Research -- 6.2 Managerial Implications -- 6.3 Possible Extensions and Future Research -- A.1 Univariate Distributions -- A.1.1 Normal - N(μ,σý) -- A.1.2 Gamma - G(αβ) -- A.1.3 Inverse Gamma - IG(α,β) -- |
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Contents note continued: A.1.4 t (or Student's t) - St(μ,σý,α) -- A.2 Multivariate Distributions -- A.2.1 Multivariate Normal - Nk(μ,Σ) -- A.2.2 Multivariate t - Stk(μΣ,α) -- A.2.3 Wishart - Wik(Ω,α) -- D.1 Project Value -- D.2 Posterior Project Value -- D.3 Expected Project Value |
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Machine generated contents note: 1.1 Motivation and Problem Definition -- 1.2 Research Objective and Modeling Approach -- 1.3 Structure -- 2.1 New Product Development -- 2.1.1 NPD Process Characteristics -- 2.1.2 Types of Uncertainty and Possible Responses -- 2.1.3 Information Generation and Updating -- 2.2 Decision Models with Information Updating -- 2.2.1 Foundations of Decision Theory and Information Updating -- 2.2.2 Bayesian Analysis -- 2.2.2.1 Foundations and Basic Ideas -- 2.2.2.2 Applications in Supply Chain Management Literature -- 2.2.3 Updating Mechanisms in R&D Models -- 2.3 Real Options Analysis -- 2.3.1 Shortcomings of Traditional Valuation Methods -- 2.3.2 Real Options -- 2.3.3 Valuation of Real Options -- 2.3.4 Models and Applications for R&D Projects -- 2.3.5 Attempts of Combining Bayesian Analysis and Real Options -- 2.4 Summary -- 3.1 Basic Model -- 3.1.1 General Structure and Development Uncertainty -- 3.1.2 Managerial Options and Development Costs -- |
| Summary |
Managing uncertainty in new product development projects for improved valuation and decision making is one of the most complex and challenging problems in operations management. This work shows how uncertainty can be handled and partly resolved by conducting an information update during the development process |
| Notes |
Originally presented as the author's thesis (Ph. D.)--WHU, Otto-Beisheim School of Management, Vallendar, Germany |
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Originally presented as the author's thesis (Ph. D.)--WHU, Otto-Beisheim School of Management, Vallendar, Germany |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 195-205) and index |
| Notes |
Print version record |
| Subject |
Bayesian statistical decision theory.
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New products -- Decision making -- Mathematical models.
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New products -- Management -- Mathematical models.
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Uncertainty (Information theory)
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| LC no. |
2008943983 |
| ISBN |
354093832X |
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9783540938323 |
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