| Description |
1 online resource (350 pages) |
| Series |
National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Income and Wealth |
|
Studies in income and wealth.
|
| Contents |
Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting; Contents; Acknowledgments; Introduction; 1. Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance; 2. A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience; 3. Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation; 4. A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model; 5. Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?; 6. Further Evidence on Business-Cycle Duration Dependence |
| Summary |
The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis |
| Analysis |
recession, economics, economy, finances, financial, money, economists, forecasting, congress, indicators, indications, business, businesses, united states of america, american society, usa, conditions, government, governing, nber-asa quarterly economic outlook surveys, recessions, prediction, looking ahead, event probabilities, stochastic simulation, macroeconometric models, dependence, cross sections, non-linearity |
| Notes |
Print version record |
| Subject |
Economic forecasting -- Congresses
|
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Economic indicators -- Congresses
|
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Business cycles -- Congresses
|
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Economic forecasting -- United States -- Congresses
|
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Economic indicators -- United States -- Congresses
|
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Business cycles -- United States -- Congresses
|
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Business cycles
|
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Economic forecasting
|
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Economic history
|
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Economic indicators
|
| SUBJECT |
United States -- Economic conditions -- Congresses
|
| Subject |
United States
|
| Genre/Form |
Conference papers and proceedings
|
| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
Watson, Mark W
|
| ISBN |
9780226774749 |
|
0226774740 |
|
