| Description |
1 online resource (124 pages) : color illustrations, color maps (digital, PDF file) |
| Summary |
This report develops a detailed estimate of energy risks in the Middle East and North Africa, drawing heavily on the analyses of the Energy Information Agency (EIA) of the US Department of Energy. The analysis is divided into several main sections: Section One focuses on demand issues and their impact on global and regional demand for liquid fuels, impact on supply, price issues, and the special conditions affecting US demand for energy imports. It shows that US political posturing about energy independence is just that, dishonest political opportunism that does not reflect the total different results of US government modeling and analysis. Section Two covers North Africa. It indicates that the projected growth in Algerian and Libyan supply will be limited by global standards, but be of importance to Europe. It also indicates that Algeria and Libya are moderate risk countries because of the political uncertainties in each state and their uncertain ability to attract sustained energy investment over time. Section Three Covers Egypt and the Levant. It indicates that Egypt will increase some aspects of gas production, but that both Egypt and Syria are steadily declining oil producers, and increases in Egyptian gas exports may have a local impact but only a token impact on world markets. Egypt emerges as a moderate risk country and Syria as a high-risk country. Section Four covers the Gulf and Yemen. It shows that the Gulf remains the key source of additional oil and gas production in spite of major projected gains in the rest of the world's output. It also shows that these increases are highly dependent on two high-risk countries, Iran and Iraq. Yemen is a high-risk country, but one with negligible and declining impact on world exports. The Southern Gulf producers, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, face some individual problems but are rated as low risk with the exception of the potential impact of a future conflict in the Gulf. Section Five covers the risk of a war in the Gulf involving Iran. There is no way to predict the form such a conflict might take or to estimate a probability in any meaningful mathematical model. Section Six examines the risks that would develop if Iran makes use of its long-range rockets and missiles. Section Seven examines the risk of an Israeli or US preventive strike. Such attacks would require either Israel or the US and allies to escalate to very high levels of conflict and could trigger a host of unintended consequences |
| Notes |
"Revised March 29, 2012"--Cover |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references |
| Notes |
Title from PDF cover screen (viewed on Apr. 11, 2012) |
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Mode of access: World Wide Web |
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System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader |
| Subject |
Petroleum industry and trade -- Africa, North -- Strategic aspects
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Petroleum industry and trade -- Middle East -- Strategic aspects
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Risk.
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Political stability -- Africa, North -- Forecasting
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Political stability -- Middle East -- Forecasting
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Energy security.
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Energy security.
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Political stability -- Forecasting.
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Risk.
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North Africa.
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Middle East.
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington, D.C.)
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