| Description |
1 online resource (35 pages) : color illustrations |
| Series |
IMF working paper, 1018-5941 ; WP/15/259 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/15/259.
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| Contents |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Modelling the Oil-Macroeconomy Relationship in a Global Context; A. The Global VAR (GVAR) Methodology; B. Country-Specific VARX* Models; C. The Global Oil Market; III. Empirical Results; A. Identification Strategy; B. The Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Oil Revolution; IV. Focusing on the MENA Region; A.A Long-Run Structural Model for Oil-Exporters; B. Spillovers to MENA Oil-Importers; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Figures; 1. Oil Production in million barrels per day, 2005M1-2015M3; 2. Impact of the U.S. Oil Supply Revolution on Real Output |
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3. Impact of the U.S. Oil Supply Revolution on Inflation4. Impact of the U.S. Oil Supply Revolution on Equity Markets; 5. Impact of the U.S. Oil Supply Revolution on Real Output in the MENA Region; 6. Ratio of Oil Export Revenues to Real Output Across Oil Exporters, 1980-2010; 7. Impact of a Negative Oil Revenue Shock for OPEC Countries; 8. External Income and Price of Oil, in Log Level; 9. Impact of a Negative Oil Price Shock; Tables; 1. Countries and Regions in the GVAR Model; 2. Lag Orders of the Country-Specific VARX*(p, q) Models Together with the Number of Cointegrating Relations (r) |
| Summary |
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S. supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market oil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S. oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by 0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters. --Abstract |
| Notes |
"December 2015." |
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"Asia and Pacific Department." |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 31-34) |
| Notes |
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed December 22, 2015) |
| Subject |
Petroleum reserves -- United States -- Econometric models
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Petroleum mining -- United States -- Econometric models
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Petroleum as fuel -- Prices -- United States -- Econometric models
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Petroleum as fuel -- Prices -- Middle East -- Econometric models
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Petroleum as fuel -- Prices -- Africa, North -- Econometric models
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Economic development -- Econometric models
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Economic development -- Econometric models
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North Africa
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Middle East
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United States
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Raissi, Mehdi, (IMFstaff), author.
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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department.
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| ISBN |
1513509845 |
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9781513509846 |
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1513548093 |
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9781513548098 |
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1513575104 |
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9781513575100 |
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