| Description |
1 online resource (30 pages) : color illustrations, maps |
| Series |
IMF working paper, 1018-5941 ; WP/15/89 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/15/89.
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| Contents |
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; Tables; Figures; I. Introduction; 1. Growth and Inflation Following the 1997/98 El Niño Episode; II. The Southern Oscillation; 2. Southern Oscillation; 3. Global Climatological Effects of El Nino; 4. Southern Oscillation Index (Anomalies), 1979M4-2014M12; III. Modelling the Climate-Macroeconomy Relationship in a Global Context; A. The Global VAR (GVAR) Methodology; B. Model Specification; 1. Countries and Regions in the GVAR Model; IV. Empirical Results |
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2. Lag Orders of the Country-Specific VARX*(p, q) Models Together with the Number of Cointegrating Relations (r)A. The Effects of El Niño on Real Output; 3. The Effects of an El Niño Shock on Real GDP Growth (in percent); 4. Share of Primary Sector in GDP (in percent), Averages over 2004-2013; 5. Trade Weights, Averages over 2009-2011; B. The Effects of El Niño on Real Commodity Prices; 6. The Effects of an El Niño Shock on Real Commodity Prices (in percent); C. The Effects of El Niño on Inflation; 7. The Effects of an El Niño Shock on Inflation (in percent) |
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5. Food Weight in CPI Basket and Inflation ResponsesD. Robustness Checks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Footnotes |
| Summary |
This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through thirdmarkets. We contribute to the climate-macroeconomy literature by exploiting exogenous variation in El Niño weather events over time, and their impact on different regions crosssectionally, to causatively identify the effects of El Niño shocks on growth, inflation, energy and non-fuel commodity prices. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to El Niño shocks. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, for other countries (including the United States and European region), an El Niño occurrence has a growth-enhancing effect. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Niño weather episodes. --Abstract |
| Notes |
"April 2015." |
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"Asia and Pacific Department." |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 27-29) |
| Notes |
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed May 4, 2015) |
| Subject |
Climatic extremes -- Econometric models
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Natural disasters -- Econometric models
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Business cycles -- Econometric models
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Economic development -- Econometric models
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Inflation (Finance) -- Econometric models
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Prices -- Econometric models
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Economic policy -- Econometric models
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Business cycles -- Econometric models
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Economic development -- Econometric models
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Economic policy -- Econometric models
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Inflation (Finance) -- Econometric models
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Prices -- Econometric models
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Mohaddes, Kamiar, author.
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Raissi, Mehdi, author.
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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department.
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| ISBN |
9781475522341 |
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1475522347 |
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147553549X |
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9781475535495 |
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9781484345504 |
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1484345509 |
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