Limit search to available items
Book Cover

Title The economic impact of the 2014 Ebola epidemic: short- and medium-term estimates for West Africa
Published Washington, DC : World Bank Group, [2014]
Online access available from:
ProQuest Ebook Central Subscription    View Resource Record  


Description 1 online resource (xiii, 90 pages) : color illustrations, color maps
Series World Bank e-Library.
Contents Cover; Contents; Foreword; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; Executive Summary; Tables; ES. 1 Lost GDP Due to Ebola, in Dollars and as a Percentage of 2013 GDP; 1. Introduction; Overview; Channels of Impact; Structure of the Report; Figures; 1.1 Broad Channels of Short-Term Economic Impact; 2. Short-Term Effects and Fiscal Impacts; Introduction; Liberia; 2.1 Liberia-Estimated GDP Impact of Ebola (2014); 2.1 Liberia-Cement Sales (2010-14); 2.2 Liberia-Fuel Sales (2010-14); 2.3 Liberia-Inflation and Food Prices (2014); 2.4 Liberia-Movement of Daily Exchange Rate since the Crisis (2014)
2.2 Liberia-Estimated Fiscal Impact of Ebola in 2014 (as estimated on October 1, 2014)Sierra Leone; 2.5 Sierra Leone-Weekly Cement Sales (2014); 2.6 Sierra Leone-Visitor Arrivals (2014); 2.7 Sierra Leone-Diesel Fuel Sales Volume (2014); 2.3 Sierra Leone-Estimated GDP Impact of Ebola (2014); 2.8 Sierra Leone-Share of Households with Insufficient Food Stocks (2011); 2.9 Sierra Leone-Soft Drink Sales (2014); 2.10 Sierra Leone-Inflation and Food Prices (2014); 2.11 Sierra Leone-Exchange Rate (2014); 2.12 Sierra Leone-Remittances (2013-14); Guinea
2.4 Sierra Leone-Estimated Fiscal Impact of Ebola in 2014 (as estimated on October 1, 2014)Neighboring Economies; 2.5 Guinea-Estimated GDP Impact of Ebola (2014); 2.13 Guinea-Inflation and Food Prices (2014); 2.14 Guinea-US Dollar-Guinean Franc Nominal Exchange Rate (2014); 2.6 Guinea-Estimated Fiscal Impact of Ebola in 2014 (as estimated on October 1, 2014); Box; 2.1 Containing the Epidemic in Senegal and Nigeria; Conclusion; 2.7 Forgone GDP Due to Ebola in Three Most Affected Countries (2014); 3. Medium-Term Impacts; Methods of Estimation; 3.1 Relationship across Models
3.5 Annual GDP Growth Rates of the West Africa Region in the Baseline and the Low Ebola and High Ebola Scenarios (2013-15)3.5 Impact of Ebola on GDP and Annual Growth Rates for West Africa (2013-15); Conclusion; 3.6 Lost GDP Due to Ebola over the Short and Medium Run; 4. Concluding Remarks; Containing the Epidemic; Fiscal Support; Restoring Investor Confidence; Strengthening the Surveillance, Detection, and Treatment Capacity of African Health Systems; Appendices; A. Sector Decomposition of GDP; A.1 Estimation of Revised Country-Level GDP for Liberia (2014)
Scenarios of the Ebola EpidemicEstimates of the Impact of Ebola; 3.1 Liberia-Estimated GDP Impact of Ebola (2015); 3.2 Liberia-Real GDP at Factor Cost (2013-15); 3.3 Headcount Poverty Rate under Alternative Scenarios (2013-15); 3.2 Sierra Leone-Estimated GDP Impact of Ebola (2015); 3.3 Guinea-Estimated GDP Impact of Ebola (2015); 3.4 Ebola Impact Index and National GDP under the Low Ebola Scenario; 3.4 Assumptions about Changes in Factor Availability in the West Africa Region as Compared with the Baseline (2014-15)
Summary Beyond its terrible toll in human lives and suffering, the Ebola epidemic has inflicted a measurable economic impact on West Africa in terms of forgone output, higher fiscal deficits, rising prices, lower real household incomes, and greater poverty. This impact results partly from the health-care costs and forgone productivity associated with being infected, but it is driven principally by the efforts of the uninfected population to avoid exposure ('aversion behavior'). The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic: Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa provides a mixed methods analysis of the economic impact, combining theory on the channels of economic impact of the epidemic, economic indicators across sectors in the affected countries, and models of how these economies interact with each other and with the broader world. The result is a quantification of the potential overall magnitude of the economic impact for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, as well as for West Africa as a whole. Ebola's short-term economic impact (2014) in the three core countries is on the order of US $3 59 million in forgone output: That is how much poorer these economies will be than they would have been in the absence of Ebola. Two alternative scenarios are used to estimate the medium-term impact (2015): A Low Ebola scenario corresponds to rapid containment within the three most severely affected countries and limited regional contagion, and a High Ebola scenario corresponds to slower containment in the three core countries with broader regional contagion. The estimates of the output lost as a result of the epidemic in the three core countries for 2015 alone sum to US $97 million under the Low Ebola scenario (implying some recovery from 2014) and US $809 million under the High Ebola scenario. Over the medium term, however, epidemiological and economic contagion are likely in the broader sub-region of West Africa. This report uses a multi-country general equilibrium model to estimate the medium-term impact on output for West Africa as a whole. Under the Low Ebola scenario, the loss in GDP for the sub-region is estimated to be US $2.2 billion in 2014 and US $1.6 billion in 2015. Under the High Ebola scenario, the estimates are US $7.4 billion in 2014 and US $25.2 billion in 2015. These are major regional impacts with global implications. This report will be of particular interest to policy makers and others interested in understanding the broader impact of the Ebola epidemic and in assisting with the subsequent economic recovery.--Publisher description
Notes "This report was prepared at the request and under the leadership of Jim Yong Kim, President of the World Bank Group ... The report was written jointly by a team drawn from the World Bank's Global Practice for Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management, the Office of the Chief Economist for the Africa Region, and the Development Prospects Group in the Development Economics Vice Presidency ... The work was coordinated by David Evans"--Page xi
A.2 Estimation of Revised Country-Level GDP for Sierra Leone (2014)
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 89-90)
Notes Print version record
Subject Ebola virus disease -- Economic aspects -- Africa, West.
Epidemics -- Economic aspects -- Africa, West.
Public health -- Economic aspects -- Africa, West.
Delivery of Health Care -- economics.
Epidemics -- economics.
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola -- economics.
Africa, Western.
Form Electronic book
Author Evans, David (David Kirkham), editor
World Bank Group, issuing body
ISBN 1464804222 (electronic bk.)
9781464804229 (electronic bk.)