| Description |
1 online resource (69 pages) |
| Series |
IMF Working Papers, 1018-5941 ; WP/17/43 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/17/43
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| Contents |
Cover; Contents; Abstract; I. Introduction; II. Identification of Export Acceleration Dates; A. Methodology; B. Stylized Facts; C. Event Studies; III. Correlates of Export Accelerations; A. EconometricModel; Domestic Macroeconomic and Governance Indicators; Real Exchange Rate and Diversification; Trade Policy and Product Market Reforms; Financial Liberalization; Globalization and GVC Participation; B. Baseline Results; C. Robustness and Sensitivity Checks; Choice of Parameters; Alternative Estimation Methods; Disaggregating Exports; Splitting the Period of Study; Oil Dependence |
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Export DecelerationsIV. Post-Surge Performance; A. Synthetic Control Method; B. Data and Case Study Selection; C. Results; V. Conclusion; VI. References; Tables; 1. Correlates of Export Accelerations: Domestic Macroeconomic and Governance Indicators; 2. Correlates of Export Accelerations: Real Exchange Rate and Diversification; 3. Correlates of Export Accelerations: Trade Policy and Product Market Reforms; 4. Correlates of Export Accelerations: Financial Liberalization; 5. Correlates of Export Accelerations: Globalization and GVC Participation; 6. Country Weights in the Synthetic Control |
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Figures1. Timing of Export Accelerations; 2. Distribution of Export Accelerations by Decade; 3. Average Number of Export Accelerations per Country, by Region; 4. Average Number of Export Accelerations per Country, by Income Level; 5. Average Number of Export Accelerations per Country, by Main Source of Export Earnings; 6. Distribution of Export Accelerations in Latin America and the Caribbean; 7. Average Number of Export Accelerations per Country in LAC; 8. Around the Initiation Date of Goods Export Accelerations; 9. Around the Initiation Date of Services Export Accelerations |
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10. Post-Acceleration Performance in Brazil and Peru11. Placebo Experiments; Appendix I |
| Summary |
This paper investigates the determinants of sustained accelerations in goods and services exports. Strong predictors of export takeoffs include domestic and structural indicators such as lower macroeconomic uncertainty, improved quality of institutions, a depreciated exchange rate, and agricultural reforms. Lower tariffs, participation in global value chains and diversification also contribute to initiating export accelerations. The paper also finds heterogeneity, with somewhat different triggers for Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as for goods and services. Finally, despite the lack of a robust effect on output, export surges tend to be associated with lower post-acceleration unemployment and income inequality |
| Notes |
Print version record |
| Subject |
Exports -- Latin America
|
|
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Economics -- General.
|
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BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Reference.
|
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Economic history
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Exports
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| SUBJECT |
Latin America -- Economic conditions -- 1982-
http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh88005678
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| Subject |
Latin America
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| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
Tesfaye Woldemichael, Martha, author
|
| ISBN |
9781475585643 |
|
1475585640 |
|
