Title The spillover effects of the global crisis on economic activity in MENA emerging market countries : an analysis using the financial stress index / Kenji Moriyama

Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2010

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Description 1 online resource (20 pages) : illustrations Series IMF working paper, 2227-8885 ; WP/10/8 IMF working paper ; WP/10/8. Contents I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Real GDP Growth Projections; II. The Financial Stress Index (FSI); 2. Financial Stress Index; III. Spillovers of Financial Stress to the MENA Region-Common Time-Varying Component Analysis; 3. Financial Stress in MENA EM Countries; 4. Financial Stress in GCC Countries; 5. Common Time Component in MENA EM Countries and Financial Stress in Advanced Economies; 6. Common Time Component in GCC Countries and Financial Stress in Advanced Economies; Text Tables; 1. Determinants of Common Time Trend IV. Impact of Financial Stress and Trade Partners' Economic Activity on Economic Activity in MENA EM countries-Panel GMM Analysis2. Financial Stress in MENA EM Countries, Decomposition; 7. Decomposition of Financial Stress in GCC Countries; 8. Decomposition of Financial Stress in MENA EM Countries; 3. Estimated Impact of Financial Stress and Trade Partners' Growth on Real GDP Growth in MENA EM Countries; 9. Decomposition of Real GDP Growth in MENA EM Countries; V. Comparison of Economic Activity Implied by the Estimated Model with Projections by Country Teams 4. Decomposition of Real GDP Growth in MENA EM CountriesVI. Conclusions and Policy Implications; 5. Real GDP Growth in MENA EM Countries; Appendices; I. Technical Description of the Financial Stress Index (FSI); II. Data Sources; III. Panel GMM Estimators; IV. Relationship Between Economic Activity in Trade Partners of MENA EM Countries and Advanced Economies-Common Time-Varying Component Analysis; Appendix Tables; A-1. Determinants of Common Time Trend; A-2. Decomposition of Trade Partners' Real GDP Growth in MENA EM Countries; References Summary The estimated spillover of the global crisis to emerging market (EM) economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) indicates that nearly two-thirds of the increased financial stress in MENA EM countries after the Lehman shock is attributable to direct or indirect spillovers of financial stress in advanced economies. Moreover, the estimated models suggest that the increased financial stress and slowdown in economic activity in advanced economies can explain about half of the drop in real GDP growth in MENA EM countries after the Lehman shock Notes Cover title Available in PDF, ePUB, and Mobi formats on the Internet "January 2010"--Page 1 Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (page 20) Notes Print version record Subject Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. Financial crises -- Middle East -- Econometric models Financial crises -- Africa, North -- Econometric models Economic development -- Middle East -- Econometric models Economic development -- Africa, North -- Econometric models Economic development -- Econometric models Economic history Financial crises -- Econometric models SUBJECT Middle East -- Economic conditions -- 21st century -- Econometric models Africa, North -- Economic conditions -- 21st century -- Econometric models Subject North Africa Middle East Form Electronic book Author International Monetary Fund, issuing body. ISBN 1283558831 9781283558839 1451918577 9781451918571 9781451961867 1451961863

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