| Description |
1 online resource (xv, 196 pages) : color illustration |
| Series |
Research report ; RR-1628-AF |
|
Research report (Rand Corporation) ; RR-1628-AF.
|
| Contents |
Preface -- Figure and Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments 1. China's Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Introduction: Background -- Literature Review -- Objectives, Scope, and Boundaries -- Findings -- Organization of This Report -- 2. Baseline: China's Evolving Strategic Nuclear Concepts: Chinese Nuclear Policy -- Chinese Views on Deterrence -- Chinese Nuclear Strategic and Operational Concepts -- Future Evolution -- 3. China's Nuclear Force Structure: Historical Background -- China's Current Nuclear Force Structure -- Future Land-and Sea-Based Missile Systems -- Conclusions -- 4. China's View of the Global Security Environment: Overall Security Environment -- Low Likelihood of Major Power Conflict -- Threats Remain, Asia-Pacific Region Less "Stable" -- Chinese Views on Global Nuclear Environment -- Conclusions -- 5. Chinese Views of U.S. Nuclear Forces and Policy: U.S. Nuclear Weapon Doctrine and Strategy -- Ballistic Missile Defense -- Conventional Prompt Global Strike -- Conclusion -- 6. Nested Security Dilemmas and China's View of Other (Non-U.S.) Nuclear Powers: Nested Security Dilemmas -- Russia as Contributor to Global Nuclear Atmospherics -- South Asia's Increasing Nuclear Prominence -- China's North Korea Problem -- China's View of Japan -- Conclusion -- 7. Internal Drivers: Political Leadership and Bureaucracy: China's Political Leadership and the Rational-Actor Model -- Bureaucratic Politics and the Military Services -- Organizational Process as a Potential Driver of Chinese Nuclear Force Structure -- Conclusion -- 8. Material Resources and Constraints: China's Budgetary Environment -- Fissile Material as a Limiting Factor -- Conclusions -- 9. Outputs: Potential Developments in China's Nuclear Future: China's Discussions of the No-First-Use Policy -- Accelerated Buildup of Nuclear Systems -- Nuclear Warfighting Capability or Concepts -- Investing in a Nuclear Triad -- Establishing a Chinese Missile Defense System -- Incorporating New Technology -- Conclusions -- 10. Contingent Futures: Drivers and Probabilities -- Chinese Nuclear Futures: Three Scenarios -- 11. China's Accelerating Nuclear Modernization: Implications: Arms Control and Arms Racing -- Crisis Stability and Escalation -- Implications for Extended Deterrence of Nuclear and Regional Political Stability -- Recommendations -- Abbreviations -- Bibliography |
| Summary |
"China's approach to nuclear deterrence has been broadly consistent since its first nuclear test in 1964. Key elements are its no-first-use policy and reliance on a small force of nuclear weapons capable of executing retaliatory strikes if China is attacked. China has recently accelerated nuclear force building and modernization, and both international and domestic factors are likely to drive faster modernization in the future. Chinese nuclear planners are concerned by strategic developments in the United States, especially the deployment of missile defenses. Within the region, Beijing is also an actor in complex multilateral security dynamics that now include several nuclear states, and the improving nuclear capabilities of China's neighbors, especially India, are a growing concern for Beijing. Constituencies for nuclear weapons have gained in bureaucratic standing within the People's Liberation Army (PLA). With few, if any, firewalls between China's conventional and nuclear missile forces, new technologies developed for the former are already being applied to the latter, a trend that will almost certainly continue. Given these changes, China is likely to increase emphasis on nuclear deterrence, accelerate nuclear force modernization, and make adjustments (although not wholesale changes) to policy"--Publisher's description |
| Notes |
"March 15, 2017"--Table of contents page |
|
"Prepared for the United States Air Force, approved for public release; distribution unlimited." |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 167-196) |
| Notes |
Online resource; title from digital title page (viewed on October 16, 2018) |
| Subject |
Nuclear weapons -- Government policy -- China
|
|
Deterrence (Strategy)
|
|
Nuclear weapons -- China -- 21st century
|
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Ballistic missile defenses -- China -- 21st century
|
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Nuclear warfare -- 21st century
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Security, International -- 21st century
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HISTORY -- Military -- Other.
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TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING -- Military Science.
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Nuclear weapons -- Government policy
|
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Ballistic missile defenses
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Deterrence (Strategy)
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Military policy
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Nuclear warfare
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Nuclear weapons
|
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Security, International
|
| SUBJECT |
China -- Military policy -- 21st century
|
| Subject |
China
|
| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
Project Air Force (U.S.), issuing body.
|
| ISBN |
9780833096548 |
|
0833096540 |
|
