| Description |
xxv, 403 pages : illustrations, maps ; 23 cm |
| Contents |
Tables, Figures, and Boxes -- Preface -- Introduction -- Why We Fail -- Failure to Share Information -- Failure to Analyze Collected Material Objectively -- Failure of the Customer to Act on Intelligence -- What the Book Is About -- Summary -- Part 1. Introduction to Target-Centric Analysis -- 1. The Intelligence Process -- The Nature of Intelligence: Reducing Uncertainty in Conflict -- The Traditional Intelligence Cycle -- Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process -- The Target -- The Target as a Complex System -- The Complex Target as a Network -- Summary -- 2. Defining the Intelligence Problem -- Statement of the Problem -- The Problem Definition Product -- Detailed Problem Definition: Strategies-to-Task -- Strategies-to-Task and Complex Problems -- Example: Denning the Counterintelligence Problem -- Summary -- 3. An Analysis Approach to the Target -- The Concept of a Model -- Using Target Models for Analysis -- Counterintelligence Analysis -- Targets -- Operations -- Linkages -- Target Model Combinations -- Submodels -- Collateral Models -- Summary -- 4. The Analytic Spectrum -- The Conflict Spectrum -- Strategic Intelligence -- Operational Intelligence -- Tactical Intelligence -- The Temporal Analysis Spectrum -- Long-Term Research Versus Current Intelligence -- The Tyranny of Current Intelligence -- Fusion Centers -- Capabilities, Plans, and Intentions -- Indications and Warning -- Summary -- Part 2. Synthesis: Creating the Model -- 5. Overview of Models in Intelligence -- Creating a Conceptual Model -- Generic Models -- Lists -- Curves -- Comparative Modeling (Benchmarking) -- Pattern Models -- Relationship Models -- Profiles -- Process Models -- Simulation Models -- Combination Models -- Geospatial Models -- Human Terrain Models -- Space-Time Models -- Geographic Profiling -- Summary -- 6. Sources of Intelligence Information -- Existing Reports -- A Taxonomy of Intelligence Sources -- Literal Intelligence Sources -- Open Source -- Human Intelligence -- Communications Intelligence -- Cyber Collection -- Nonliteral Intelligence -- Remote and In Situ Sensing -- Imaging and Spectral Sensing -- Passive Radiofrequency Intelligence -- Radar Intelligence -- Geophysical and Nuclear Intelligence -- Materiel and Materials Collection -- Biometrics -- Summary -- 7. Evaluating and Collating Data -- Evaluating Evidence -- Evaluating the Source -- Evaluating the Communications Channel -- Evaluating the Credentials of Evidence -- Pitfalls in Evaluating Evidence -- Combining Evidence -- Convergent and Divergent Evidence -- Redundant Evidence -- Formal Methods for Combining Evidence -- Summary -- 8. Collection Strategies -- The U.S. Collection Management Problem -- The Problem Breakdown and Target Model Relationship -- Identifying Gaps -- Developing the Collection Strategy -- Using Existing Collection Assets -- Dealing with Enigmas -- Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gaps -- Executing Collection Strategies -- Summary -- 9. Denial, Deception, and Signaling -- Denial and Deception -- Defense Against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods -- Higher Level Denial and Deception -- The Man Who Never Was -- The Cuban Missile Crisis -- The Farewell Dossier -- The Indian Nuclear Test -- Countering Denial and Deception -- Signaling -- Analytic Tradecraft in a World of D&D -- Summary -- Part 3. Predictive Analysis -- 10. Analytic Methodologies -- Structured Argumentation -- Wigmore's Charting Method -- Bayesian Techniques for Combining Evidence -- Competitive and Alternative Target Models -- Competitive Analysis -- Alternative Analysis -- The Role of Information Technology -- Summary -- 11. Prediction -- Introduction to Prediction -- Convergent and Divergent Phenomena -- The Predictive Approach -- Introduction to Force Synthesis/Analysis -- Qualitative Force Synthesis/Analysis -- Scenarios -- Why Use Scenarios? -- Types of Scenarios -- Scenario Perspectives -- How to Construct Scenarios -- Indicators and the Role of Intelligence -- A Scenario Exercise: The Global Information Environment in 2020 -- Summary -- 12. Predictive Techniques -- Extrapolation -- Extrapolation Techniques -- Correlation and Regression -- Limitations of Extrapolation -- Projection -- Generating Alternatives -- Influence Trees or Diagrams -- Influence Nets -- Making Probability Estimates -- Sensitivity Analysis -- Forecasting -- The Nonlinear Approach to Forecasting -- Techniques and Analytic Tools of Forecasting -- Evaluating Forecasts -- Summary -- 13. Shaping Forces -- Inertia -- Countervailing Forces -- Contamination -- Synergy -- Feedback -- Strength -- Time Delay -- Regulation -- Summary -- 14. Organizational Analysis -- Structure -- Organizational Size and Capabilities -- Type of Structure -- Network Analysis -- Function -- Rational Aspect -- Cultural Aspect -- Emotional Aspect -- Collective Decision Making -- Process -- Operations Research -- Schedule -- Cost -- Summary -- 15. Technology and Systems Analysis -- Technology Assessment -- Future Performance -- Innovation -- Technology Use, Transfer, and Diffusion -- Systems Analysis -- Future Systems -- Performance Analyses -- Systems Simulation -- Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis -- Creating and Running a Simulation -- Summary -- 16. The Intelligence Customer -- Introduction -- Policymakers -- Congress -- Business Leaders -- Military Leadership -- Military Operations -- Homeland Security -- Law Enforcement -- What All Customers Want -- Analyst-Customer Interaction -- Analyst as Communicator: Getting the Customer to Understand the Message -- Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In -- The Defense Analysis Challenge -- Presenting Analysis Results -- Support Every Analytic Conclusion -- Write or Brief with a Purpose -- Separate Facts from Analysis -- Get to the Point -- Write or Brief to Inform, Not to Impress -- Make It Easy and Enjoyable to Read or Listen To -- Write as You Would Talk -- Avoid Acronyms -- Use Graphics -- Summary -- 17. Managing Analysis -- Introduction -- Who Are the Customers, and What Do They Need? -- What Should the Unit Produce? -- Structure -- Topical or Regional Structure? -- Fusion Centers -- To Firewall or Not to Firewall -- Process -- The Analyst -- Recruiting and Developing Analysts -- Planning the Analysis Project -- Managing Team Efforts -- Peer and Management Review -- Collaborative Tools -- Sharing Versus Protection of Sources and Methods -- Limits and Boundaries -- Limits -- Boundaries -- Function -- Pressures -- Some Causes of Failures -- Evaluating the Product -- Summary -- Appendix I. A Tale of Two NIEs -- The Yugoslavia NIE -- The Setting -- First Draft (the "Muddle Through" NIE) -- Second Draft: Force Field Analysis -- The Customer View -- The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE -- Poor Problem Definition -- Poor Evaluation of Sources and Evidence -- Failure to Consider Alternative Target Models -- Poor Analytic Methodology -- Poor Interaction with Collectors and Customers -- Appendix II. Example Project Plan -- Problem Definition -- Précis -- Research Plan -- Index -- About the Author |
| Summary |
Due to the ever-evolving tactics of Our enemies, the American intelligence community, has been compelled to find more effective methods of managing intelligence analysis. In Intelligence Analysis, Robert M. Clark demonstrates that a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis while better meeting the needs of the end-user |
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Comprehensively revised to reflect the changes in the constantly shifting landscape of intelligence, the new forth edition accounts for recent events and is rife with new examples throughout. Brand new and significantly revised coverage includes chapters on managing the analytic unit, analytic methodologies, and the analytic spectrum, bringing a heightened level of clarity to this outstanding, must-have resource |
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Clark's practical information and insider perspective create the perfect resource for students and practioners alike |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Subject |
Intelligence service -- Methodology.
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| LC no. |
2012032725 |
| ISBN |
9781452206127 paperback alkaline paper |
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1452206120 paperback alkaline paper |
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