Title Coping with uncertainty : modeling and policy issues / [edited by] Kurt Marti [and others]

Published Berlin ; New York : Springer, ©2006

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Description 1 online resource (xiii, 330 pages) : illustrations Series Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems ; 581 Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems ; 581. Contents Facets of robust decisions / Y. Ermoliev, L. Hordijk -- Stress testing via contamination / J. Dupačová -- Structured modeling for coping with uncertainty in complex problems / M. Makowski -- Using Monte Carlo simulation to treat physical uncertainties in structural reliability / D.C. Charmpis, G.I. Schuëller -- Explicit methods for the computation of structural reliabilities in stochastic plastic analysis / I. Kaymaz, K. Marti -- Statistical analysis of catastrophic events / J.L. Teugels, B. Vandewalle -- Scene interpretation using Bayesian network fragments / P. Lueders -- General equilibrium models with discrete choices in a spatial continuum / M. Keyzer, Y. Ermoliev, V. Norkin -- Sequential downscaling methods for estimation from aggregate data / G. Fischer [and others] -- Optimal control for a class of uncertain systems / F.L. Chernousko -- Uncertainties in medical processes control / A.G. Nakonechny, V.P. Marzeniuk -- Impacts of uncertainty and increasing returns on sustainable energy development and climate change : a stochastic optimization approach / A. Gritsevskyi, H.-H. Rogner -- Stochasticity in electric energy systems planning / A. Ramos [and others] -- Stochastic programming based PERT modeling / A. Gouda, D. Monhor, T. Szántai -- Towards implementable nonlinear stochastic programming / L. Sakalauskas -- Endogenous risks and learning in climate change decision analysis / B. O'Neill, Y. Ermoliev, T. Ermolieva -- Pricing related projects / S.D. Flam, H.I. Gassmann -- Precaution : the willingness to accept costs to avert uncertain danger / C. Weiss Summary Ongoing global changes bring fundamentally new scientific problems requiring new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of practically irreducible uncertainties, which challenge our traditional models and require new concepts and analytical tools. The uncertainty critically dominantes, e.g., the climate change debates. In short, the dilemma is concerned with enormous costs vs. massive uncertainties of potential extreme impacts. Traditional scientific approaches usually rely on real observations and experiments. Yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and "pure" experiments and learning by doing may be very expensive, dangerous, or simply impossible. In addition, available historical observations are contaminated by actions, policies. The complexity of new problems does not allow to achieve enough certainty by increasing the resolution of models or by bringing in more links. Hence, new tools for modeling and management of uncertainty are needed, as given in this book Analysis Policy issues Coping economie economics bedrijfswetenschap management science engineering operationeel onderzoek operations research optimalisatie optimization numerieke methoden numerical methods computational science Management studies, Business Administration, Organizational Science (General) Economics (General) Management, bedrijfskunde, organisatiekunde (algemeen) Economie (algemeen) Bibliography Includes bibliographical references Notes Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 MiAaHDL English Print version record digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve pda MiAaHDL In Springer e-books Subject Uncertainty -- Mathematical models -- Congresses Decision making -- Mathematical models -- Congresses Stochastic processes -- Congresses MATHEMATICS -- General. Decision making -- Mathematical models. Uncertainty -- Mathematical models. Stochastic processes. Affaires. Science économique. Economie de l'entreprise. Decision making -- Mathematical models. Stochastic processes. Uncertainty -- Mathematical models. Globalisierung Sozioökonomischer Wandel Risikomanagement Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit Onzekerheid. Stochastische analyse. Optimaliseren. Genre/Form Conference papers and proceedings. Conference papers and proceedings. Actes de congrès. Form Electronic book Author Marti, Kurt, 1943- ISBN 9783540352624 3540352627 3540352589 9783540352587 6610727279 9786610727278 1280727276 9781280727276

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