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Title Information rigidities in economic growth forecasts : evidence from a large international panel / Jonas Dovern [and others]
Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2013

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Description 1 online resource (24 pages) : color illustrations
Series IMF working paper ; WP/13/56
IMF working paper ; WP/13/56.
Contents Cover; Abstract; I. INTRODUCTION; II. METHODOLOGY FOR TESTING FOR FORECAST SMOOTHING; A. Average Forecasts; B. Individual Forecasts; C. Nonlinearity; III. DATA AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS; IV. EMPIRICAL FINDINGS; A. Average Forecasts; B. Individual Forecasts; Information Stickiness; Forecast Smoothing; C. Nonlinearity; V. CONCLUSION; REFERENCES
Summary "We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts. Instead, the empirical evidence is more in line with implications of "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003). Second, we find that information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies. Third, there is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution"--Abstract
Notes Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Mar. 13, 2013)
"Research Department"--Page 2 of pdf
"February 2013"--Page 2 of pdf
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 21-23)
Subject Economic development -- Forecasting
Information theory in economics.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Development -- Business Development.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Development -- Economic Development.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Development -- General.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Government & Business.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Structural Adjustment.
POLITICAL SCIENCE -- Public Policy -- Economic Policy.
Economic development -- Forecasting
Information theory in economics
Form Electronic book
Author Dovern, Jonas.
International Monetary Fund. Research Department.
ISBN 9781475585667
1475585667
1475587619
9781475587616