Cover; Contents; I. Retaining Credibility; II. The Near-Term Growth and Employment Outlook; A. Output; B. Employment; III. The Strength and Shape of the Recovery; A. An Export-Led Recovery?; B. The Deflationary Drag; C. Macro-Financial Linkages; IV. Financial Sector: Restructuring and Stability; A. Restructuring; B. Financial Stability; V. The Fiscal Outlook and Consolidation Agenda; A. The Outlook; B. The Consolidation Strategy; VI. Staff Appraisal; Boxes; 1. Unemployment in Ireland; 2. Potential Output Growth after the Crisis; 3. Macro-Financial Linkages
4. The National Asset Management Agency5. Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Balances; Tables; 1. Selected Economic Indicators; 2. Summary of Balance of Payments; 3. General Government Finances; 4. Medium-Term Scenario; 5. Indicators of External and Financial Vulnerability; Figures; 1. What Goes Up Fast, Comes Down Hard; Appendix; I. Public Sector and External Sustainability; Contents; I. Fund Relations; II. Statistical Issues
Summary
1. Through assertive steps to deal with the most potent sources of vulnerability, Irish policymakers have gained significant credibility. Measures to stabilize the banking sector and achieve substantial fiscal consolidation have demonstrated the authorities' resolve to alleviate short-term risks while beginning to tackle their considerable long-term challenges. These actions have reassured the global policy community and international financial markets. The precipitous fall in Irish banks' stock prices has abated. Over the past months, Irish sovereign bond spreads have tended to rise significantly on the days of intensely adverse international market sentiment but otherwise Ireland has been accorded the space to pursue its planned policy trajectory
