Title Health status and medical treatment of the future elderly : final report / Dana P. Goldman [and others]

Published Santa Monica, CA : RAND, ©2004 ©2004

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Description 1 online resource (xxxv, 228 pages) : illustrations Contents Prospects for medical advances in the 21st century -- The medical expert panels -- The future elderly model (FEM) -- Health expenditures -- Health status -- The health status of future Medicare entering cohorts -- Scenarios -- Usefulness to the Office of the Actuary -- Conclusions Summary The ability to predict future health care costs reasonably accurately is critical to planning for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The models used for such projections to date, however, are limited in terms of their capacity to take into account the complex array of factors likely to affect future spending. To improve CMS's ability to map the effects on spending of such factors as medical breakthroughs and demographic trends, RAND Health developed the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a demographic-economic model framework of health spending projections that enables the user to answer "what-if" questions about the effects of changes in health status and disease treatment on future health care costs. What distinguishes the FEM from other models is its inclusion of a multidimensional characterization of health status, which allows the user to include a richer set of demographic controls as well as comorbid conditions and functional status. This report describes the development of the FEM and its application in four clinical areas: cardiovascular disease, the biology of aging and cancer, neurological disease, and changes in health care services. Beside those involved in planning at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, it should be of interest to health policy planners and health economists Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 214-228) Notes "TR-169-CMS, August 2004, prepared for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services." Online resource; title from home title page (RAND, viewed on Oct. 8, 2012) Subject Older people -- Health and hygiene -- United States -- Forecasting Older people -- Medical care -- Economic aspects -- United States Medical care, Cost of -- United States -- Forecasting Medical care -- United States -- Mathematical models Older people. Health planning. Health Expenditures -- trends -- United States Health Services for the Aged -- economics -- United States Health Planning -- United States Health Status -- Aged -- United States Medicare -- economics Population Dynamics -- United States Health Expenditures -- trends Health Services for the Aged -- economics Aged Health Planning Health Status Population Dynamics elderly. MEDICAL -- Health Policy. Older people Health planning Medical care, Cost of -- Forecasting Medical care -- Mathematical models Aged Public Health. Public Health. Health & Biological Sciences. SUBJECT United States Subject United States Form Electronic book Author Goldman, Dana P. (Dana Paul), 1966- Rand Corporation. LC no. 2004012328 ISBN 9780833057983 0833057987

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