Cover; Half Title; Title Page; Copyright Page; TABLE OF CONTENTS; LIST OF FIGURES; LIST OF TABLES; ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS; CHAPTER I: BACKGROUND AND INTRODUCTION; 1 Changing Mineral Industry Costs; 2 Estimating the Effects of Cos Changes; 3 Model Overview and Study Outline; 4 Limitations of the Analysis; CHAPTER II: ECONOMETRIC COMMODITY MODELS REVIEW AND COMPARISON; 1 Econometric Non-Ferrous Metal-Market Models; 2 Comparison with the Copper-Aluminum Substitution (CAS) Model; 1 The Primary Industries; 2 The Secondary Industries
3 A Classification of Econometric Models of Copper and Aluminum Markets4 The Assumptions Made in Modeling Such Markets; CHAPTER III: PRIMARY COPPER AND ALUMINUM; 1 The Structure of the Primary Industries; 1 The Relevant Market; 2 Concentration; 3 Barriers to Entry; 2 Cost Trends in Primary Production; 1 The Technology of Primary Copper and Aluminum Production; 2 The Prices of the Principal Inputs to Primary Production and Their Effect on Cost; 3 Natural-Resource Costs-Ore Quality Measures; 4 Transport Cost; 3 Estimating the Equation in the Copper and Aluminum Industry Models
4 Primary Prices -- Mechanisms and Trends1 Definition of Alternative Behavioral Pricing Mechaninsms; 2 Primary-Price History: 1954 to 1976; 3 Specification of a Primary Price Equation; 4 Estimation of the U.S. Producer-Price Equations; 1 The Data; 2 The Price Equstions; 5 Primary Production; 1 The Source of Primary Supply; 2 Trends in Primary Production; 3 Specification of a Primary-Production Equation; 4 The Econometric Estimation; 1 The Data; 2 The Primary production Equations; Appendix III. 1 Estimating Equations with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors
Appendix III. 2 An Attempt to Measure Scarcity Rent in the Copper IndustryAppendix III. 3 Non-Market Mechanisms -- Price Controls and Rationing; CHAPTER IV: SECONDARY COPPER AND ALUMINUM; 1 The Structure of the Secondary Industries; 1 Industry Description; 2 Concentration and Barriers to Entry; 2 Cost Trends in Secondary Production; 1 Secondary-Production Technology; 2 Energy Usage in Secondary Production; 3 Secondary Prices-Mechanisms and Trends; 1 Definition and Historic Behaviour of Secondary Metal Prices; 2 Specification of a Secondary-Price Equation
3 Estimation of the Secondary-Price Equations4 Secondary Supply-Recycling; 1 Produciton from New Scrap; 2 Production from Old Scrap; CHAPTER V: THE USING SECTORS; 1 The Pattern of Consumption; 1 Copper and Aluminus Apparent Consumption 1954-1976; 2 The Major Markets; 2 Sustitution Between Copper and Aluminum; 1 Areas of Potential Substitution; 2 Elasticities of Substitution; 1 The Two-Level CES Production Function; 2 Shiller Distributed Lags; 3 The Data; 4 The Elasticity of Substitution Equaitons; 5 Comparison With Other Elasticity Estimates; 6 Interpretation of Elasticity Results
