Title Fiscal expectations under the Stability and Growth Pact : evidence from survey data / prepared by Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro and Jan-Christoph Rulke

Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2011

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Description 1 online resource (41 pages) Series IMF working paper ; WP/11/48 IMF working paper ; WP/11/48. Summary The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts' deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP's reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets' forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP Notes Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed March 30, 2011) At head of title: African Department Bibliography Includes bibliographical references SUBJECT Stability and Growth Pact (1997) http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2005014105 Stability and Growth Pact (1997) fast Subject Debts, Public -- European Union countries Rational expectations (Economic theory) -- European Union countries Debts, Public Forecasting Rational expectations (Economic theory) European Union countries -- Forecasting European Union countries Form Electronic book Author Rülke, Jan-Christoph, author. International Monetary Fund. African Department, issuing body. ISBN 1283559609 9781283559607 9781455218943 1455218944

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