| Description |
1 online resource (38 pages) : digital, PDF file |
| Contents |
Introduction -- Humanity is compelled to predict and will fail : the first five propositions -- How to prepare for predictive failure : the last five propositions -- Conclusion |
| Summary |
The Department of Defense relies on predictions about future threats and potential scenarios to forecast needs and select and acquire major weapons systems. Yet history has shown that an uncertain national security environment dictates the need for adaptability and flexibility when predictions are incorrect, and the U.S. military must be better prepared when predictions are wrong. This report examines the nature of prediction in national security and offers strategic recommendations for how the U.S. Department of Defense can improve its predictive capabilities while also preparing for predictive failure. The author recommends that the Department of Defense adopt new strategies to improve its predictive abilities while also preparing to be unprepared, and suggests narrowing the time between conceptualizing programs and bringing them to realization; building more for the short-term and designing operationally flexible equipment; and valuing diversity and competition. Policymakers will always drive in the dark, but by adopting these recommendations, they may better respond to unpredictable conditions and prepare the United States for unforeseen threats |
| Notes |
Title from PDF title page (viewed on October 26, 2011) |
|
"October 2011." |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 29-38) |
| Subject |
United States. Department of Defense -- Forecasting
|
| SUBJECT |
United States. Department of Defense. fast (OCoLC)fst01852447 |
| Subject |
National security -- United States -- Forecasting
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Forecasting -- Methodology
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Forecasting.
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Forecasting -- Methodology.
|
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National security -- Forecasting.
|
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United States.
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| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
Center for a New American Security
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