I. Introduction; II. SAFTA: Stylized Facts, Institutions, and Literature Review; Text Figures; 1. SAFTA: Interregional Trade; 2. SAFTA: Average Tariffs; III. Disentangling the Effects of SAFTA; A. Theoretical Considerations; 3. SAFTA's TLP Schedule; B. Model Specification and Data; C. Estimation Results; D. Simulations; Text Tables; 1. Distribution of SAFTA Trade Effects; 4. SAFTA: Effects on Customs Revenue; 5. Customs Revenue: Reaction to Tariffs; IV. Concluding Remarks; Figures; 1. South Asia: Intra-Regional Trade and Composition of Trade; 2. SAFTA Tariffs
3. SA + RTAs: Regional Effects in 2004Tables; 1. Gravity Equation Results; 2. South Asia and Regional Trading Arrangements; Appendix; 1. Selection Bias; References
Summary
The paper evaluates the South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) within the global structure of overlapping regional trade agreements (RTAs) using a modified gravity equation. First, it examines the effects of the Trade Liberalization Program which started in 2006. SAFTA would have a minor effect on regional trade flows and the impact on custom duties would be a manageable fiscal shock for most members. Second, the paper ranks the trade effects of other potential RTAs for individual South Asian countries and SAFTA: RTAs with North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU) dominate one with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)
Bibliography
Includes bibliographical references (pages 23-25)
Notes
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