| Description |
1 online resource (64 pages) |
| Series |
IMF Working Papers |
|
IMF Working Papers
|
| Contents |
I. Introduction; II. Adapting Gravity Trade Theory; III. Data; IV. Estimation; V. Conclusions; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics of Caribbean Tourism; 2. Destination Tourist Base Concentration; 3. OECD and Caribbean Country Groups; 4. Hurricanes Making Landfall, 1995-2004; 5. Gravity Estimates of Caribbean Tourism; 6. Cuba: Estimates of Bilateral Tourist Arrivals; 7. The Impact on the Caribbean of Opening U.S. tourism to Cuba; 8. Alternative Estimates of U.S.-Cuba Unrestricted Tourism in the Caribbean; 9. Model 1: Projected Arrivals from Gravity Estimates |
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10. Model 3: Long-term Gravity Estimation with Industry CostsFigures; 1. OECD Tourist Arrivals; 2. Cuba-U.S. Tourism Distortions; 3. Evolution of Cuba in Caribbean Tourism; 4. Distribution of Tourist within Destinations; 5. Top Five Clients of Caribbean Destinations, 1995-2004; 6. Top Five Destinations of OECD Visitors, 1995-2004; 7. Clustering by Tourism Preferences 1995-2004; 8. Clustering by Fundamentals and Culture; 9. Cost Comparison Across Caribbean; 10. Market Concentration Based on Hotel Rooms, 1996-2004; 11. Airlines Owned by OECD and Caribbean Countries |
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12. Modeling of Tourist from the U.S.A13. Modeling of Tourist Arrivals to Cuba; 14. Hotel Capacity Utilization; 15. Before and After Assuming U.S. Tourists New to Caribbean; 16. Pie Chart of Visitor Distribution Assuming All New U.S. Tourists; 17. Before and After Assuming No New U.S. Tourists; 18. Pie Chart of Visitor Distribution Assuming No New U.S. Tourists; 19. Map Assuming U.S. Arrivals Divert from the Rest of the Caribbean; 20. Caribbean by U.S. Arrivals and OECD by Arrivals to Cuba; 21. Gravity Estimates of Long-term Adjustment of Destinations; 22. Pie Charts of Gravity Estimates |
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23. Gravity Estimates of Percent Change in Arrivals24. OECD, Caribbean, Relative Size with Open Tourism; VI. References; VII. Appendix |
| Summary |
An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market sh |
| Notes |
Print version record |
| Subject |
Tourism -- Caribbean Area -- Econometric models
|
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Tourism -- Cuba -- Econometric models
|
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International economic relations -- Econometric models
|
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Tourism -- Econometric models
|
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International economic relations -- Econometric models
|
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Tourism -- Econometric models
|
| SUBJECT |
Cuba -- Foreign economic relations -- United States -- Econometric models
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United States -- Foreign economic relations -- Cuba -- Econometric models
|
| Subject |
Caribbean Area
|
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Cuba
|
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United States
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| Form |
Electronic book
|
| ISBN |
9781451914733 |
|
1451914733 |
|
