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Book Cover
E-book
Author Mallios, William S. (William Steve), 1935-

Title Forecasting in financial and sports gambling markets : adaptive drift modeling / William S. Mallios
Published Hoboken, N.J. : Wiley, [2011]
©2011
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Description 1 online resource (xiii, 264 pages) : illustrations
Contents Frontmatter -- Introduction -- Market Perspectives: Through a Glass Darkly -- Opacity and Present-Day Dynamics -- Adaptive Modeling Concepts in Dynamic Markets -- Studies in Japanese Candlestick Charts -- Pseudo-Candlesticks for Major League Baseball -- Single-Equation Adaptive Drift Modeling -- Single-Equation Modeling: Sports Gambling Markets -- Simultaneous Financial Time Series -- Modeling Cointegrated Time Series Associated with NBA and NFL Games -- Categorical Forecasting -- Financial/Mathematical Illiteracy and Adolescent Problem Gambling -- The Influenza Futures Markets -- References -- Index
Summary "This book discusses cointegrated time series associated with financial and sports gambling markets are analyzed in terms of time-varying parameter models. Modeling premises are that present and past disequilibria--shocks both within and between time series--may affect subsequent changes and rates of these changes within individual series and sufficiently large shocks may disrupt/alter model structure such that resulting forecasts may be temporarily unreliable"--Provided by publisher
"This book discusses cointegrated time series associated with financial and sports gambling markets are analyzed in terms of time-varying parameter models. Modeling premises are that present and past disequilibria--shocks both within and between time series--may affect subsequent changes and rates of these changes within individual series and sufficiently large shocks may disrupt/alter model structure such that resulting forecasts may be temporarily unreliable. Reduced forecasting equations are in terms of higher order ARMA models that are not limited to bilinear processes. Sports forecasting models based on public information are usually more effective--in terms of profitable trading/wagering strategies--than those for the financial sector for two reasons: insider information is less prevalent, and modeling is simplified since lagged shocks associated with the gambling lines/spreads are known--in contrast with financial modeling where there are no comparable gambling shocks, only unknown, lagged statistical shocks in terms of MA variables. Forecasting is illustrated for NFL and NBA playoff games. In financial markets, cointegration is discussed in terms of candlestick chart variants with modeling illustrations given in terms of recent Google price changes. Chapter coverage includes candlestick charts, higher order ARMA processes in financial markets, the effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets, cointegrated time series with model drift, modeling volatility, and the promotion of financial and mathematical literacy"--Provided by publisher
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references and index
Notes Print version record
Subject Investments -- Mathematical models.
Speculation -- Mathematical models.
Sports betting -- Mathematical models.
Form Electronic book
LC no. 2010036845
ISBN 0470484527
0470880597 (electronic bk.)
0470880619 (electronic bk.)
1283025124
9780470484524
9780470880593 (electronic bk.)
9780470880616 (electronic bk.)
9781283025126