Description |
1 online resource (25 pages) : illustrations |
Series |
IMF working paper, 2227-8885 ; WP/07/123 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/07/123.
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Contents |
I. Introduction; II. Increases in Monetary Policy Transparency; III. Accuracy of Financial Market Forecasts; IV. Conclusions; Tables; 1. Selected Changes in SARB Transparency, 1994-2006; 2. Time Series for Absolute Forecast Error in JIBAR; Figures; 1. JIBAR 3-Month-Ahead Forecast Errors, absolute value, in basis points, 1997-2006; 2. JIBAR 6-Month-Ahead Forecast Errors, absolute value, in basis points, 1997-2006; 3. 12-Month-Ahead Forecast Errors, absolute value, in basis points, 1997-2005; 3. JIBAR Forward Market Forecast Errors, 1997:1-2006:12 |
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4. Fluctuations in the JIBAR Rate Around MPC Announcement Dates, 1999-20064. Surprise Component of MPC Announcements, 2003-06; 5a. Cross-Sectional Dispersion in Interest Rate Forecasts (1-quarter-ahead forecasts); 5b. Cross-Sectional Dispersion in Interest Rate Forecasts (4-quarters-ahead forecasts); 5. Forecast Dispersion, March 2000-December 2006; 6. Inflation Trends (12-month change, in percent); 6. Inflation Trends, 2000-06; 7. Inflation (CPIX) Volatility, 1998-2006; 8a. CPIX Inflation: Forecast Errors, 2000-06; 8b. CPIX Inflation: Forecast Errors, 2003-06; 9. Exchange Rate Volatility |
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7. Inflation Forecast Errors and Exchange Rate Volatility, 2000-200610. Dispersion in Inflation Forecasts, 2000-06; 11. GDP Forecast Errors, 2000-06; 12. GDP Forecast Errors, 2003-06; 13. GDP Forecast Dispersion, 2000-06; References |
Summary |
The transparency of monetary policy in South Africa has increased substantially since the end of the 1990s; but little empirical work has been done to examine the economic benefits of the increased transparency. This paper shows that, in recent years, South African private sector forecasters have become better able to forecast interest rates, are less surprised by reserve bank policy announcements, and are less diverse in the cross-sectional variety of their interest rate forecasts. In addition, there is some evidence that the accuracy of inflation forecasts has increased. The improvements in interest rate and inflation forecasts have exceeded those in real output forecasts, suggesting that increases in reserve bank transparency are likely to have played a role |
Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (page 25) |
Notes |
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 MiAaHDL |
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English |
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digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve pda MiAaHDL |
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Print version record |
Subject |
Monetary policy -- South Africa
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Interest rates -- South Africa
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Economic forecasting -- South Africa
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Economic forecasting
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Economic history
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Interest rates
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Monetary policy
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SUBJECT |
South Africa -- Economic conditions.
http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85125465
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Subject |
South Africa
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Form |
Electronic book
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Author |
International Monetary Fund. African Department
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ISBN |
1283518376 |
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9781283518376 |
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1451911408 |
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9781451911404 |
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1462326579 |
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9781462326570 |
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1452708754 |
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9781452708751 |
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9786613830821 |
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6613830828 |
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