| Description |
1 online resource (16 pages) |
| Series |
IMF working paper ; WP/13/252 |
|
IMF working paper ; WP/13/252.
|
| Contents |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Overview of Methodology; A. Vector Auto-Regression; B. Factor Analysis; III. A Financicial Conditions Index for Poland; A. Overview of the Constructed FCIs; B. VAR-Based FCI; Tables; I. Correlations Between Financial Variables and Real Activity, 2004Q1-2012Q4; Figure; I. Contributions to FCI, 2004Q1-2013Q1; C. Factor-Based FCI; IV. Forecast Evaluation; II. In-Sample Predictive Tests; V. Conclusion; III. Out-of-Sample Predictive Tests, Relative RMSE; References |
| Summary |
"This paper constructs a financial conditions index for Poland to explore the link between financial conditions and real economic activity. The index in constructed by applying two complementary approaches--factor analysis and vector auto-regression approach. We evaluate the index's forecasting performance against a composite leading indicator developed by the OECD. We found that the FCI is highly correlated with GDP growth, attesting to the importance of financial sector in Poland's economy. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting exercises indicate that the FCI can outperform the CLI in predicting near-term GDP growth"--Abstract |
| Notes |
At head of title: European Department |
|
"October 2013." |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references |
| Notes |
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed January 10, 2014) |
| Subject |
Finance -- Poland -- Econometric models
|
|
Economic history
|
|
Finance -- Econometric models
|
| SUBJECT |
Poland -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models
|
| Subject |
Poland
|
| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
Lu, Yinqiu, author.
|
|
International Monetary Fund. European Department, issuing body.
|
| ISBN |
9781475540642 |
|
1475540647 |
|
9781484313947 |
|
1484313941 |
|
