Title How good are ex ante program evaluation techniques? : the case of school enrollment in PROGRESA / prepared by Fabian Bornhorst

Published Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2009

Click on the following:
ProQuest Ebook Central
IMF eLibrary

Copies

Description 1 online resource (35 pages) : color illustrations Series IMF working paper ; WP/09/187 IMF working paper ; WP/09/187. Contents Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Ex Ante Evaluation:Theory; A.A Model of Occupational Choice; B. Estimation and Identification; C. Impact Simulation; III. Ex Ante Evaluation: Results; Table 1: Weekly Earnings and Per Capita Household Income; Table 2: Reported Status; Table 3: Sample Means; A. Estimation of the Earnings Vector; Table 4: Estimation of Earnings Equation; Table 5: Actual and Imputed Earnings; B. Estimation of the Choice Model; Table 6: Estimation of the Multinomial Logit Model; Table 7: Accuracy of Model Prediction (K=1) Table 8: Estimation of Structural Parameters (K=1)Table 9: Accuracy of Model Prediction (K 0.5); C. Impact Simulation; Table 10: PROGRESA Transfer Scheme; Table 11: Estimated Transition Matrix; IV. The Benchmark: Ex post Analysis; A. Pre-Program Differences; Table 12: Pre-Program Differences: Boys; Table 13: Pre-Program Differences: Girls; B. Difference Estimation; Table 14: Difference Estimator: Boys; Table 15: Difference Estimator: Girls; Figure 1: Enrollment Ratio: Actual Effect of PROGRESA, D and DD Estimator; V. Comparison of Results and Discussion Figure 2: Simulated effect and D estimateTable 16: Simulation, D and DD Estimates, and Sensitivity to K; Table 17: Transition to Secondary School; VI. Concluding Remarks; VIII. Appendix; A. Key Elements of PROGRESA; B. Data Description; C. Method for Drawing Choice-consistent Residuals; D. Bootstrap Mechanism; VII. References; Footnotes Summary This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation Notes At head of title: Fiscal Affairs Department "September 2009." Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (page 31) Notes English Print version record Subject Programa de Educación, Salud y Alimentación (Mexico City, Mexico) -- Evaluation -- Econometric models SUBJECT Programa de Educación, Salud y Alimentación (Mexico City, Mexico) fast Subject School attendance -- Mexico -- Evaluation -- Econometric models Economic assistance, Domestic -- Mexico -- Evaluation -- Econometric models Poor -- Mexico -- Evaluation -- Econometric models Mexico Form Electronic book Author International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Department. ISBN 9781452733920 1452733929 9781451873344 1451873344 9781451917598 1451917597 1462331556 9781462331550 9786612843976 6612843977 1282843974 9781282843974

  Permalink