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Title Climate change scenarios and managing the scarce water resources of the Macquarie River / prepared by Hassall & Associates Pty Ltd ... and CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research under the Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Grants Program
Published [Canberra] : Australian Greenhouse Office, 1998

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Location Call no. Vol. Availability
 W'BOOL  333.91309944 Ccs/Amt  AVAILABLE
Description 113 pages : illustrations (some color), maps ; 30 cm
Contents 10.4. The world's population problem -- 10.5. Our resources and environment -- 10.6. Changing land use in the face of climate change -- 10.7. How the community and government can achieve the necessary changes -- 10.8. Our future -- 11. Questions and responses at the dubbo conference -- 11.1. Questions regarding chapter 2, answered by Peter Whetton, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research -- 11.2. Questions regarding chapter 3, answered by Dugald Black, DLWC -- 11.3. Questions regarding chapter 4, answered by Ian Foreman and Hans Woldring - 11.4. Questions regarding chapter 5, answered by Bill Johnson, NPWS -- 11.5. Questions regarding chapter 7, answered by Helen Russ, co-ordinator, Macquarie 2100 -- 11.6. Questions regarding chapter 8, answered by Dan Berry, DLWC -- 11.7. Questions regarding chapter 9, answered by Bill Johnson, NPWS --
11.8. General discussion -- 12. Summing up the day -- 13. Where to from here? -- 13.1 What are the scenarios for climate change for this catchment? -- 13.2. What are the consequent river flows? - 13.3. What effects will this have on the economy of the region? -- 13.4. What effects will this have on the ecology of the region? -- 13.5. What might people, especially the population of the region, do about climate change? -- 13.5.1. Adaptive strategies -- 13.5.2. Avoidance strategies -- 13.6. What is the future for climate change impacts studies?ernment's new ini
3.2.3. IQQM river basin simulation model -- 3.2.4. Application of IQQM to the Macquarie River Valley -- 3.3. Climate change scenarios - 3.4 Results for changes in runoff (from Sacramento model) -- 3.4.1. Burrendong Dam inflows -- 3.5. Results for changes in crop demands (from Macquarie IQQM) -- 3.5.1. Regulated Macquarie system -- 3.5.2. Irrigation plantings and river diversions -- 3.6. Results for changes in Macquarie Marshes inflows -- 3.7. Where to from here? -- 4. Consequences for the agricultural economy -- 4.1. Background and methodology -- 4.2. Adjustment for the beneficial effects of enhanced carbon dioxide on plant growth -- 4.3. Impact on livestock industries -- 4.4. Impact on dryland cropping -- 4.5. Impact on irrigated cropping -- 4.6. Aggregate annual impact -- 4.7. Practical implications of this research --
4.8. Where to from here? -- Appendix I. Statistical local areas included in the study area - Appendix II. Size and value of each enterprise in the study area -- 5. Consequences for the Macquarie Marshes -- 5.1. The Macquarie Marshes -- 5.2. Conservation importance -- 5.2.1. Vegetation -- 5.2.2. Waterbirds -- 5.3. Indicators of wetland health -- 5.3.1. Vegetation -- 5.3.2. Colonially nesting waterbirds -- 5.4. Effect of climate change scenarios -- 5.4.1. Vegetation -- 5.4.2. breeding of colonially nesting waterbirds -- 5.4.3. Other fauna -- 5.4.4. General -- 5.5. Where to from here? -- 6. The Macquarie Marshes Land & Water Management Plan (LWMP) -- 6.1. Introduction -- 6.2. The significance of the marshes -- 6.3. The Macquarie Marshes Catchment Committee -- 6.4. The Macquarie Marshes land and water management plan --
6.5. The planning structure and process for development of the LWMP -- 6.6. The planning area boundary -- 6.7. LWMP endorsement, implementation and review -- 6.8. The content of the LWMP -- 7. Macquarie 2100: a community environmental plan for 100 years -- 7.1. Introduction -- 7.2. What is Macquarie 2100 -- 7.3. The process for Macquarie 2100 -- 7.4. Principles of operation -- 7.6. The role of each task group -- 7.7. What we want -- 7.8. Some of the ideas put forward so far -- 7.9. A plan to cope with changes -- 7.5. What has happened so far -- 8. How should a cautious river manager approach this uncertain future? -- 8.1. Introduction -- 8.2. Current allocation rules -- 8.3 Handling climate change -- 9. How should a cautious nature reserve manager approach this uncertain future? --
9.1. What we should do -- 9.1.1. We should not work in isolation -- 9.1.2. Encourage the wise use of wetlands -- 9.1.3. Protect wetland vegetation -- 9.1.4. Apply a range of management strategies to different wetlands -- 9.1.5. Determine critical processes -- 9.1.6. Investigate links between catchments and wetlands -- 9.1.7. Ensure that wetlands and water sources remain intact --9.1.8. Allow fish passage to and from floodplain -- 9.1.9. Manage for uncertainty -- 9.2. What we should not do -- 9.2.1. Manage wetlands in isolation -- 9.2.2. Constrain wetlands -- 9.2.3. Rely on compensatory wetlands -- 10. How should a cautious landowner approach this uncertain future? -- 10. 1. My approach -- 10.2. Our lucky generation in our lucky country -- 10.3. The coming generation --
Project summary: climate change scenarios and managing the scarce water resources of the Macquarie River -- Conference opening - 1. Introduction -- 1.1. The Macquarie Valley -- 1.2. Irrigation development -- 1. 3. The Macquarie marshes -- 1.4. Replenishment flows and unregulated flow sharing. -- 2. Climate change methodology and results -- 2.1. Climate modelling -- 2.2. Preparation of the scenarios -- 2.2.1. Regional climate model results -- 2.2.2. Scaling the DARLAM results for 2030. -- 2.3. The scenarios -- 2.4. What other scenarios are possible? -- 2.5. Where to from here? -- 3. River flow modelling -- 3.1. Introduction -- 3.2. Methodology for predicting the effect of climate change scenarios -- 3.2.1. Sacramento rainfall-runoff model -- 3.2.2. Application of Sacramento model to the Macquarie Valley --
Summary Climate change scenarios were generated for the Macquarie River region. These scenarios were used to estimate river flows. Then the effects of the climate and river flow scenarios on the economy and ecology of the region were estimated. The results were presented and discussed at a community conference held in the city of Dubbo, the major centre for the region, on May 21, 1997. Two climate change scenarios were developed in 1996 by CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research; representing High and Low greenhouse gas concentrations and rates of release (based on upper and lower estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The High and Low scenarios indicate that, by 2030, average temperatures in the Macquarie Valley may be between 0.5 and 1.6 °C higher than at present
For managers of scarce water resources, climate change presents both risks and opportunities that previously have been largely ignored. This report considers climate change scenarios for the year 2030 and potential consequences for water resource managers in the Macquarie River region of New South Wales, Australia. The region is a major agricultural production area. The region also contains the Macquarie Marshes, an internationally renowned breeding habitat for wetland bird species. The multi-disciplinary approach to the project involved a range of scientists (climatologists, hydrologists, river managers and ecologists), the expertise of an agricultural and resource management consultants and some input from the local community and other stakeholders
Modellers conducting these studies face three challenges: to produce models with limited funds that adequately predict any potential changes in climate; to ensure that modelling efforts build on and are interfaced with existing models and to allocate the limited financial resources to those activities which most improve our ability to effectively respond to the opportunities and threats posed by climate change.esia
Neither the Land and Water Management Plan nor Macquarie 2100 had considered the effects of climate change, however there were indications that they might in the future. The combined presentations, and questions arising at the conference, provided a valuable opportunity for both the community and government agencies to reflect on the results generated by the study and the general implications of climate change. Those speaking on behalf of the community emphasised the need to consider a host of potential changes, not just changes in climate, as well as the uncertainty inherent in the climate change scenarios. The presenters were optimistic that responsible resource management, including responses to climate change, was possible
The conference included presentations from local resource managers (a river manager, a nature reserve manager and a landowner) about the implications of the generated scenarios. Other contributions included details of the Macquarie Marshes Land & Water Management Plan, such as the ecological significance of the Marshes and the management, monitoring, research and educational activities proposed under the Plan. "Macquarie 2100", a community environmental plan for 100 years, was also outlined. This long term plan - appropriate considering the time scale facing climate issues ̃ aims to improve bio-physical problems (e.g. salinity), economic issues and social concerns (e.g. youth unemployment and suicide) by looking at the total picture and providing a vehicle for people and government to work together
The effects on water availability for both irrigation and flows into the Macquarie Marshes were calculated, assuming that the 1997 water allocation rules were followed. The annual irrigation diversion (amount available for irrigation) was reduced between 27 and 93 GL/year (9 to 27 percent of the base case diversion volume). The mean annual flows into the Marshes were reduced by between 51 and 141 GL/year (11 to 32%). It should be noted that the historical inflows vary considerably from year to year and that detecting trends due to climate change, given present data, is difficult. The climatic effects on the economy of the region were then assessed by Hassall & Associates Pty Ltd, looking at dryland and irrigated agriculture. These effects included both negative factors (lower irrigation water diversions
These processes are likely to trigger a faster response to changing environmental conditions and reductions in water availability (for irrigation) than the physical changes modelled in this study. However, the present study can provide an important contribution to these political processes. The study presents a model for future climate change investigations that concentrates on climate change impacts, integrating cutting-edge scientific models and having these readily available to the community. Funds have been made available by the Cotton Research and Development Corporation to model the effect of climate change on river flow of those rivers of the Murray Darling Basin that support cotton production, and this work should commence in 1998
Two types of responses are characterised: adaptive and/or avoidance strategies. It is noted that participants did not dwell on other long term problems that resource managers may face, did not fully discuss the "Precautionary Principle", did not mention campaigning to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and did not call for more dams and inter-basin transfers. The study took place during many relevant political processes, including the lead-up to the Kyoto Convention on Climate Change, implementation of the 'Cap' (limit) placed on extracting water from the rivers of the Murray Darling Basin, the release of the NSW Government's Water Reform Package, the passing in the NSW Parliament of the Native Vegetation Conservation Act and the announcement of the Federal Government's Natural Heritage Trust initiative
lower rainfall and higher evaporation) as well as assumed beneficial factors (higher temperature and higherC02 levels) that lead to higher plant growth. Taking both positive and negative factors into account, the potential effect on the local economy was calculated to be a loss in Gross Revenue of between $38 million and $152 million dollars per year (6 to 22 %) under the High and Low scenarios, respectively. Livestock industries, given their scale and that negative factors far outweigh positive factors, will be the worst affected. Wheat will be slightly affected, as some beneficial factors are assumed. Cotton, however, shows generally a positive effect from changed climate scenarios due to assumed higher increases in yield with the higher C02 levels. The results did not incorporate changes in technology which could be significant. Cotton irrigators, for example
rainfall may be three to ten percent lower and evaporation may be three to ten percent higher. The results were generated using a regional climate model nested within a global circulation model. The results have a high degree of uncertainty, and many assumptions were required in the course of constructing the models. Therefore, the scenarios are presented as plausible possibilities, rather than predictions, of what the climate may look like in 2030. Using these scenarios as input to their 1QQM Macquarie River Model, the NSW Department of Land and Water Conservation produced river flow scenarios. These river flow scenarios showed that the mean annual runoff to Burrendong Dam (the main water storage on the Macquarie River) may be reduced by between 12 and 32 percent under the High and Low scenarios, respectively
reported that increases in irrigation efficiency of 30% were quite possible. The National Parks and Wildlife Services assessed the effects of the lower water flow into the Macquarie Marshes, assuming that the rules allocating water were not changed. The potential effects included: a reduction of both semi-permanent and ephemeral wetland vegetation by 20 percent to 40 percent of their original area by 2030, less frequent breeding events for the colonial nesting bird species and, depending on what effects these climate changes have elsewhere on the species, the occurrence of local, regional and global extinctions. This will mean, quite clearly, that Australia will fail in our obligations to conserve and manage wetlands for future generations
under various international conventions such as: the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International Importance, the Japan Australia Migratory Bird Agreement, the China Australia Migratory Bird Agreement and the International Convention on Biological Diversity. The above results were presented and discussed at a community conference in Dubbo, New South Wales. In opening the Conference, the Minister for the Environment, Senator Hill, emphasised the importance of identifying impacts from climate change, undertaking appropriate responses and raising community awareness of the issues. The Minister also indicated that the Government's new initiatives, posed under the Natural Heritage Trust, would provide support to enhance environmental and natural resource management issues in Australia
Notes "March 1998"
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references
Notes Also available via the World Wide Web at : http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/publications/pubs/macquarieriver.pdf
System requirements: Internet connectivity, Web browser and Adobe Acrobat reader
Commonwealth of Australia 1998
Subject Climatic changes -- Australia -- Macquarie River Region (N.S.W)
Climatic changes -- Australia -- New South Wales -- Macquarie River Region
Climatic changes -- Australia -- New South Wales -- Macquaries River Region
Global warming.
Hydrology -- Climatic factors -- Australia -- Macquarie River Region (N.S.W.)
Hydrology -- Climatic factors -- Australia -- New South Wales -- Macquarie River Region
Water conservation -- Australia -- New South Wales -- Macquarie River Region
Water resources development -- Climatic factors -- Australia -- Macquarie River Region (N.S.W.)
Water resources development -- Climatic factors -- Australia -- New South Wales -- Macquarie River Region
SUBJECT Macquarie River Region (N.S.W.) -- Climate
Author Australian Greenhouse Office.
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (Australia). Division of Atmospheric Research.
Hassall & Associates.
ISBN 1876536241