| Description |
1 online resource (53 pages) : color illustrations, color maps, color portraits |
| Series |
Middle East security report ; 20 |
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Middle East security report ; 20
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| Contents |
Executive summary. -- Introduction. -- Backround. -- Maliki and the State of Law alliance. -- The sadrists. -- The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraw (ISCI). -- The new political player: Asa'ib Ahl Al-Haq. -- The continued disunity of Iraqi Sunni politics. -- The unusual positon of the Iraqi Kurds. -- Maliki's electoral trategy. -- The position of Iraq's religious authorities. -- The Iranian government's calculus. -- Pre-elections destabilization. -- The implication of the 2013 provincial elections. -- The role of IHEC in 2014 and the smart voting card. -- The vulnerability of the elections law. -- The post-elections environment and destabilization. -- Conclusion. -- Appendices. -- Notes |
| Summary |
Iraq's 2014 national elections are taking place at a difficult time. The country is at a crossroads, presented with the possibility of widely different futures. Deteriorating security conditions frame political thought in ways that harken back to Iraq's first national elections in 2005. The disenfranchisement of Iraq's Arab Sunnis; the rising threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS); and the activation of Ba'athist groups collectively discourage electoral participation. Shi'a militias that threatened Iraq's security in 2004 have reactivated in 2014. Iranian-backed militias such as Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), the Badr Organization, and parties affiliated with the Sadrist Trend are actively participating in elections as well. The political mobilization of these groups, some in competition with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, demonstrates a retreat from Iraqi Shi'a political unity; however, it also raises new concerns about public perceptions of the need for protection beyond what the state has been able to provide. The increasing threat of spillover from the Syrian war and high levels of violence in Iraq have cast doubt on the ability of Iraq's national elections to generate an outlet of healthy political competition that empowers Iraq's population to participate. The Iraqi public is dissatisfied with corruption, deteriorating security, and lack of progress in service delivery. Iraq's elections can be an opportunity for producing change that can aid in containing the violence instead of following its current trajectory. Holding the elections despite the threats is important because security is not likely to improve. The conduct of elections on April 30, 2014 will have to be free and fair in order to re-inject legitimacy into the political process and allow wider participation. But a good election day will not make up for some of the conditions that have been set before election day to skew the outcome. Washington must also recognize the very real risk that the Iraqi Sunni political opposition to Maliki may be destroyed by these elections, increasing the risk that the Sunni violent insurgency will accelerate. Working with Iraqi Sunni tribal and political leaders who do not support Maliki to ensure that they have a voice in parliament and in government is essential for Iraq's long term security. An inclusive and representative government after the elections will be important not only for Iraq, but also for regional security and U.S. national security interests |
| Notes |
"April 2014." |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 46-53) |
| Notes |
Online resource; title from PDF title page (ISW, viewed April 28, 2014) |
| Subject |
Elections -- Iraq -- 2014
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Elections.
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Politics and government.
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| SUBJECT |
Iraq -- Politics and government -- 2003- http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh2004001807
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| Subject |
Iraq.
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| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
Institute for the Study of War (Washington, D.C.), publisher.
|
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Praescient Analytics (Firm)
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Palantir Technologies
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