| Description |
1 online resource (35 pages) : illustrations |
| Series |
IMF working paper, 2227-8885 ; WP/04/57 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/04/57.
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| Contents |
""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE""; ""III. MEASURES OF POTENTIAL OUTPUT AND THE OUTPUT GAP""; ""IV. ECONOMETRIC EVALUATION""; ""V. SUMMARY OF DESCRIPTIVE RESULTS AND CONCLUDING REMARKS""; ""APPENDIX. IS THERE A LONG-RUN PHILLIPS CURVE IN FINLAND?""; ""REFERENCES"" |
| Summary |
The output gap-which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential-is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods. It evaluates these methods against economic history and each other by a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for Finnish CPI inflation. Only two gap measures, stemming from a frequency domain approach and the Blanchard-Quah decomposition, perform better than the naïve prediction of no change in inflation-but do not improve upon a simple autoregressive forecast. The pronounced volatility of output in Finland makes it particularly difficult to estimate potential output, producing considerable uncertainty about the size (and sign) of the gap |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 33-35) |
| Notes |
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 MiAaHDL |
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digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve pda MiAaHDL |
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Print version record |
| Subject |
Input-output analysis -- Finland
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Inflation -- Finland -- Forecasting
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Economic forecasting -- Finland
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Inflation (Finance) -- Finland -- Forecasting
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Inflation (Finance) -- Forecasting
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Economic forecasting
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Input-output analysis
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Finland
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
International Monetary Fund. European Department, issuing body.
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| ISBN |
1451894651 |
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9781451894653 |
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1281600547 |
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9781281600547 |
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9781451847802 |
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1451847807 |
| ISSN |
2227-8885 |
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