| Description |
1 online resource (42 pages) |
| Series |
IMF working paper ; WP/10/178 |
|
IMF working paper ; WP/10/178.
|
| Contents |
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; B. Assumed Information Structure of Data; C. Empirical Methodology; A. Basic Model and Results; I. Introduction; Table 1. Correlation Coefficients; II. Model and Empirical Strategy; A. Basic Model and Results; B. Efficiency Tests; Table 2. Naive vs. Rational Priors; Table 3. Baseline Efficiency Tests; Table 4. Efficiency Tests: Iterative Error Adjustment; Table 5. In-Sample Efficiency Gains, by Country; C. Efficiency Gains from adjusted Consensus Forecasts; Table 6. In-Sample Efficiency Gains, by Forecast Horizon |
|
Table 7. Out of Sample Efficiency Gains, by CountryTable 8. Out of Sample Efficiency Gains, by Forecast Horizon; D. Robustness Checks; Table 9. Efficiency Tests: Median Forecasts; Table 10. Efficiency Tests: Real Time Growth Data; Table 11. SPF Nominal GDP Forecasts; III. Application to Cross-Country Growth Forecasts; A. Morris and Shin (2002): A Reassessment; B. Groupthink, Bank Behavior and the Credit Crunch; IV. Discussion; V. Conclusions; Appendix; Table A1. Individual Regression Results Summary; Table A2. Individual SPF Regression Results Summary; References; Footnotes |
| Summary |
Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper finds that: consensus forecasts are inefficient as predicted; this is not due to individual forecaster irrationality; forecasters appear unaware of this inefficiency; and a simple adjustment reduces forecast errors by 5 percent. Similar results are found using US nominal GDP forecasts. The paper also discusses the result's implications for users of forecaster surveys and for the literature on information aggregation |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 41-43) |
| Notes |
English |
|
Print version record |
| Subject |
Economic forecasting -- Econometric models
|
|
Information theory in economics -- Econometric models
|
|
Econometrics.
|
|
Econometrics
|
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Economic forecasting -- Econometric models
|
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Information theory in economics -- Econometric models
|
| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
International Monetary Fund. Research Department, issuing body.
|
| ISBN |
9781455276790 |
|
1455276790 |
|
1282846507 |
|
9781282846500 |
|
1455201618 |
|
9781455201617 |
|
1462327486 |
|
9781462327485 |
|
9786612846502 |
|
661284650X |
|
1455201898 |
|
9781455201891 |
|
