| Description |
1 online resource (31 pages) |
| Series |
IMF working paper ; WP/11/57 |
|
IMF working paper ; WP/11/57.
|
| Contents |
Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Macroeconomic Developments; A. Domestic and External Developments; Figure 1. Chad: Domestic and External Developments, 2002-09; B. Inflation Dynamic; Figure 2. Chad: Annual Inflation (percent), 1983-2009; Figure 3. Chad: Monthly Consumer and Food Price Indexes, 2005:M12-2010:M3; III. The Theoretical Framework; IV. Data and Empirical Model; A. Data; B. Inflation Model; Table 1. Chad: Long-Run Equilibrium in the Money Market; Table 2. Chad: Long-Run Equilibrium in the External Market; C. Results |
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Table 3. Chad: Inflation ModelD. Structural Vector Autoregression Model; Figure 4. Chad: Impulse Response of Inflation; V. Conclusion; Appendices; Table A.1. Chad: Weights of the Components/Subcomponents of the CPI; Table A.2. Chad: Definitions and Sources of Variables; Table A.3. Chad: Unit Root Test; Figure A.1. Chad: Evolution of the Main Variables; Figure A.2. Chad: Four-Quarter Lag Moving Average of the National Rainfall and CPI; Table A.4. Chad: Johansen Cointegration Test, Money Market Equilibrium; Table A.5. Chad: Johansen Cointegration Test, External Market Equilibrium |
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Figure A.3. Chad: Actual and Predicted Quarterly Inflation (Specification 1)Figure A.4. Chad: Residuals (Specification 1); Figure A.5. Chad: Actual and Predicted Quarterly Inflation (Specification 2); Figure A.6. Chad: Residuals (Specification 2); Figure A.7. Chad: Actual and Predicted Quarterly Inflation (Specification 3); Figure A.8. Chad: Residuals (Specification 3); Table A.6. Chad: Diagnostic Statistics for the Single-Equation Inflation Models; References; Footnotes |
| Summary |
This paper examines the determinants of inflation in Chad using quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3. The analysis is based on a single-equation model, completed by a structural vector auto regression model to capture inflation persistence. The results show that the main determinants of inflation in Chad are rainfall, foreign prices, exchange rate movements, and public spending. The effects of rainfall shocks and changes in foreign prices on inflation persist during six quarters. Changes in public spending and the nominal exchange rate affect inflation during three and four quarters, respectively |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references |
| Subject |
Inflation (Finance) -- Chad -- Econometric models
|
|
Inflation (Finance) -- Econometric models
|
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Chad
|
| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
International Monetary Fund. African Department, issuing body.
|
| ISBN |
1283565625 |
|
9781283565622 |
|
9781455232062 |
|
1455232068 |
|
9781455221011 |
|
1455221015 |
|
9781462351565 |
|
1462351565 |
|
