Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Model; III. Calibration; IV. Results; V. Concluding Remarks; Tables; 1. Parameters for Labor/Leisure Choice; 2. Variables to be Calibrated for Country-Specific Data; 3. Parameters Common to Countries; Figures; 1. Hours Worked Per Person and Aging Trend; 2. Aging Trend and Changes in Parameters for Labor/Leisure Decision; 3. Labor Laffer Curve with CD Preference; 4. Labor Laffer Curve with CFE Preference; 5. Capital Laffer Curve with CD Preference; 6. Capital Laffer Curve with CFE Preference; 7. Tax Revenue Decomposition and Tax Bases
8. Tax Revenue Ratio, Hours Worked, and Output9. Iso-Revenue Curve (CD Preference); 10. Decrease in Fiscal Space vs. Decrease in Labor Supply; References
Summary
This paper quantitatively investigates how population aging trend affects fiscal space measured as unused revenue generating capacity by utilizing a standard neoclassical growth model. A calibration exercise for G-7 countries shows that France, Germany and Italy suffer greater revenue impact from a given reduction in hours worked due to their larger government expenditure. Corrective measures such as pension reform and flexible expenditure policy would be required in order to mitigate the impact of aging on fiscal space
