| Description |
1 online resource (110 pages) : color illustrations |
| Series |
IMF country report, 2227-8907 ; no. 15/65 |
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IMF country report ; no. 15/65.
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| Contents |
Cover; CONTENTS; CONTEXT AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS; BOXES; 1. Policies since the 2012 Article IV Consultation; OUTLOOK AND RISKS; FIRST REVIEW UNDER THE EXTENDED ARRANGEMENT; A. Fiscal Policy; 2. Spillovers from Global and Regional Developments to Armenia; B. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy; C. Financial Sector Policy; D. Structural Issues; E. Program Issues; ARTICLE IV DISCUSSIONS: REDUCING VULNERABILITIES AND INCREASING POTENTIAL GROWTH; A. Reducing vulnerabilities; B. Increasing Potential Growth and Inclusiveness; 3. Constraints to Potential Growth; FIGURES; 1. Labor Market |
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STAFF APPRAISALTABLES; 1. Armenia: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2009-16; 2. Balance of Payments, 2009-19; 3. Monetary Accounts, 2009-15; 4. Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2009-14; 5. Central Government Operations, 2009-16, (In percent of GDP); 6. Central Government Operations, 2009-16, (In billions of dram); 7. Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework, 2009-19; 8. Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2011-19; 9. External Financing Requirements and Sources, 2013-17 |
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10. Fund Disbursements and Timing of Review Under a 38-Month Arrangement Under the Extended Fund FacilityAPPENDICES; I. Letter of Intent; Attachment I. Technical Memorandum of Understanding; ANNEXES; I. Armenia's Accession to the Eurasian Economic Union; II. Pension Reform: Recent Developments and Changes; III. Reserve Metrics and External Stability Assessment; IV. Public Debt Sustainability Analysis; V. Real Exchange Rate Assessment; CONTENTS; FUND RELATIONS; WORLD BANK AND IMF COLLABORATIONS-JMAP IMPLEMENTATION; RELATIONS WITH THE EUROPEAN BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT (EBRD) |
| Summary |
KEY ISSUES Context, outlook, and risks. Armenia's economic environment has become more complex, particularly due to adverse external developments. Growth is expected to slow to 2.6 percent of GDP in 2014 and accelerate gradually over the medium term. Key risks include geopolitical developments in the region (Russia, Ukraine, Nagorno-Karabakh). Fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is sustainable. However, continued capital budget underexecution is a concern. The draft 2015 budget envisages increased capital spending to help support growth. Fiscal reforms are advancing, but further revenue gains are needed to address pressing social and investment needs. Monetary and financial sector. Monetary policy has turned accommodative in response to weakening demand and lower inflation, but will need to remain vigilant in light of rising global rates and excess liquidity in the banking system. The banking sector remains robust and well capitalized, but a recent increase in NPLs warrants monitoring. The authorities are strengthening financial sector regulation and resilience. External stability. While consolidation has continued, the current account deficit is expected to remain high over the medium term. International reserves are adequate. Staff estimates suggest that an adjustment of the real exchange rate over the medium term, together with structural reforms, would facilitate further external adjustment. Structural reforms. More forceful reforms would improve Armenia's capacity to grow, create jobs, and reduce poverty. The authorities should move faster to bolster the flagship pension reform to ensure its long-run success. They should leverage Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) membership to increase exports, improve standards, enhance domestic competition, and invest in infrastructure, while pursuing greater trade integration beyond the EEU. Program. The program is broadly on track. All PCs and most ITs were met. There were some delays in meeting structural benchmarks, mainly due to the government change in mid-2014 rather than a change in policy direction. The authorities are requesting that the equivalent of SDR 11.74 million become available with completion of the review. Article IV. Discussions focused on reducing vulnerabilities and boosting potential growth via: (i) overcoming fiscal underspending; (ii) more exchange rate flexibility to facilitate external adjustment; (iii) additional dedollarization measures; and (iv) more ambitious structural reforms to improve competitiveness and inclusiveness |
| Notes |
"March 2015." |
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"December 5, 2014"--Page 2 of pdf |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references |
| Notes |
English |
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Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF Web site, viewed March 12, 2015) |
| Subject |
International Monetary Fund -- Armenia
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| SUBJECT |
International Monetary Fund fast |
| Subject |
Economic development -- Armenia
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Economic forecasting -- Armenia
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Geopolitics -- Economic aspects -- Armenia
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Fiscal policy -- Armenia
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Monetary policy -- Armenia
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Financial risk management -- Armenia
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Structural adjustment (Economic policy) -- Armenia
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Economic assistance -- Armenia
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BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Economics -- General.
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BUSINESS & ECONOMICS -- Reference.
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Economic assistance
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Economic development
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Economic forecasting
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Economic history
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Financial risk management
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Fiscal policy
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Monetary policy
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Structural adjustment (Economic policy)
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| SUBJECT |
Armenia -- Economic conditions
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| Subject |
Armenia
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
International Monetary Fund.
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| ISBN |
9781498355018 |
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1498355013 |
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1498399819 |
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9781498399814 |
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