| Description |
1 online resource (31 pages) : color illustrations |
| Series |
IMF working paper ; WP/14/80 |
|
IMF working paper ; WP/14/80.
|
| Contents |
Cover; Contents; I. Background and Introduction; II. Trade Patterns in the Middle East and Central Asia; A. Assessing Exposure and Vulnerability; Tables; Table 1: Geographical Distributions of Exports of Goods, 2007-11; B. The Impact of the Lehman Crisis; Figures; Figure 1: Share of Non-Hydrocarbon Exports by Destination; Figure 2: All Goods Exports to the World; Figure 3: Non-Oil Exports to the World; C. Recent Developments; III. Regression Results; Figure 4: Non-Oil Exports to Europe; Figure 5: Non-Oil Exports to BRICS; Table 2: Preferred Export Elasticity Estimates |
|
Table 3: Alternative ARDL EstimatesIV. Simulations; A. Euro Area Shocks; Table 4: Weak Growth in Europe Scenario; Table 5: Re-emergence of Financial Stress in Euro Area Scenario; Figure 6: Two-year Cumulative Non-Oil Export Impact of Euro Area Financial Stress, percent; B. Emerging Market Shock; Table 6: BRICS Slowdown Scenario; Figure 7: Two-Year Cumulative Non-Oil Export Impact of BRICS Schock, percent; C. Downward Revisions of the Global Outlook; Table 7: Implications of Revisions to Global Growth; Figure 8: Export Loss from Revisions to Global Growth; V. Conclusion; References |
| Summary |
"This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011-14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS"--Abstract |
| Notes |
"Middle East and Central Asia"--Page 2 of pdf |
|
"May 2014"--Page 2 of pdf |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references |
| Notes |
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed June 6, 2014) |
| Subject |
Exports -- Middle East
|
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Exports -- Africa, North
|
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Financial crises -- Middle East
|
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Financial crises -- Africa, North
|
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Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009.
|
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Exports
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Financial crises
|
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North Africa
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Middle East
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| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
Espinosa-Bowen, Jaime, author.
|
|
International Monetary Fund, issuing body.
|
| ISBN |
9781484381359 |
|
1484381351 |
|
