Title Demand patterns in France, Germany, and Belgium : can we explain the differences? / prepared by Igor Lebrun and Esther Pérez Ruiz

Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2014

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Description 1 online resource (25 pages) : color illustrations Series IMF working paper ; WP/14/165 IMF working paper ; WP/14/165. Contents Cover; Contents; I. INTRODUCTION; II. DEMAND PATTERNS IN FRANCE, GERMANY, AND BELGIUM; III. PRIORS AND DATA REQUIREMENTS; A. Estimation Methodology and Priors; B. Data and Measurement Issues; IV. RESULTS; A. Private Consumption; B. Non-residential Business Investment; C. Exports; D. Demand Patterns in France, Germany, and Belgium: Are They Different?; V. CONCLUDING REMARKS; VI. REFERENCES Summary The need to revive Euro area growth highlights the importance of the evolution of domestic and external demand in the core. This paper puts recent demand patterns in France, Germany, and Belgium into historical perspective. We find that, first, dynamics for private consumption, non-residential business investment, and exports since 2008 is dominated by conventional determinants, with no discernible structural break as a result of the crisis. Second, although country-specific factors matter in some cases, demand patterns in these countries are largely driven by common determinants. Third, developments in common fundamentals tend to dominate demand dynamics, coupled, in a few cases, with structurally different elasticities across countries. Fourth, short-term analysis suggests a role for confidence and uncertainty factors in explaining temporary deviations of these variables from long-term fundamentals.--Abstract Notes "September 2014." "European Department." Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 23-24) Notes Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed September 15, 2014) Subject Consumption (Economics) -- France -- Econometric models Investments -- France -- Econometric models Exports -- France -- Econometric models Economic development -- France -- Econometric models Consumption (Economics) -- Germany -- Econometric models Investments -- Germany -- Econometric models Exports -- Germany -- Econometric models Economic development -- Germany -- Econometric models Consumption (Economics) -- Belgium -- Econometric models Investments -- Belgium -- Econometric models Exports -- Belgium -- Econometric models Economic development -- Belgium -- Econometric models Consumption (Economics) -- Econometric models Economic development -- Econometric models Exports -- Econometric models Investments -- Econometric models Supply and demand -- Econometric models SUBJECT France -- Supply and demand -- Econometric models Germany -- Supply and demand -- Econometric models Belgium -- Supply and demand -- Econometric models Subject Belgium France Germany Form Electronic book Author Pérez, Esther (Pérez-Ruiz), author. International Monetary Fund. European Department, issuing body.

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