""The National Energy Modeling System""; ""Copyright""; ""DEDICATION""; ""Contents""; ""Acknowledgments""; ""Executive Summary""; ""PRINCIPAL FINDINGS""; ""PRINCIPAL RECOMMENDATIONS""; ""Timing of NEMS Development""; ""NEMS Management""; ""NEMS Design""; ""1 INTRODUCTION""; ""STUDY GENESIS AND BACKGROUND""; ""SCOPE OF THE STUDY""; ""ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT""; ""2 NEMS REQUIREMENTS""; ""THE ROLE OF MODELS IN POLICY ANALYSIS AND PLANNING""; ""Energy Policy-Related Models""; ""General Approaches To Modeling""; ""The Benefits of Models""; ""The Limitations of Models""
""THE MISSION AND FUNCTIONS OF DOE AND EIA""""Strategic Analysis""; ""Data Collection and Information Dissemination""; ""R & D Program Planning""; ""Current Modeling Capabilities Within DOE and EIA""; ""NEMS IN THE BROAD CONTEXT OF POLICY ANALYSIS""; ""Keeping NEMS Outward Looking""; ""Capabilities Outside DOE""; ""THE NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY EXPERIENCE""; ""Overview of the NES Exercise""; ""Committee View of the NES Analysis""; ""Illustrative Policies""; ""DIRECTIONS IN ENERGY MODELING""; ""General Trends""; ""Quantification of Uncertainty""; ""Long-Term Forecasting""; ""NEMS REQUIREMENTS""
""FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS""""3 NEMS ARCHITECTURE""; ""OVERVIEW""; ""MODULAR ARCHITECTURE""; ""Advantages of Modular Systems""; ""Disadvantages of Modular Systems""; ""INTEGRATING MODEL OPERATION""; ""PROPOSED MODULES""; ""The Control Module""; ""Fossil Fuel Supply Modules""; ""Energy Conversion Modules""; ""Renewable Energy Conversion Modules""; ""The International Energy Module""; ""The Interindustry Growth Model""; ""Energy Demand Modules""; ""Behavioral Information Requirements""; ""Sectoral Information Needs""; ""Information Needs for Policy Analysis""
""Quality and Timeliness of Data and Information""""Reduced-Form Modules""; ""Satellite Modules""; ""Energy Security""; ""The Environmental Module""; ""Report Writers""; ""NEMS COMPARED TO CURRENT DOE MODELING""; ""NEMS TREATMENT OF CONCEPTUAL ISSUES""; ""Market Disequilibrium""; ""Uncertainty""; ""Contingent Strategies""; ""The Formation of Expectations""; ""Environmental Constraints""; ""OPERATIONAL ISSUES FOR NEMS DEVELOPMENT""; ""RECOMMENDATIONS""; ""4 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NEMS""; ""LEAD ORGANIZATION FOR THE NEMS""; ""SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION""; ""EMPLOYEE ENVIRONMENT""
""MANAGEMENT OF NEMS DEVELOPMENT""""MOTIVATION AND USEFULNESS""; ""RECOMMENDATIONS""; ""APPENDIX A-1 SCOPE OF WORK""; ""THE PROBLEM""; ""ANALYSIS OF THE PROBLEM""; ""PROPOSED EFFORT""; ""First Part of Review""; ""Second Part of Review""; ""ANTICIPATED RESULTS""; ""REPORTING""; ""APPENDIX A-2 COMMITTEE CHARGE""; ""APPENDIX B FIRST ADVISORY REPORT""; ""COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL ENERGY MODELING SYSTEM""; ""Staff""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. FINDINGS""; ""A. Background""; ""B. General Observations""; ""C. Specific Comments""; ""1. Long-Run Modeling and Forecasting""; ""2. The FOSSIL2 Model""
