| Description |
1 online resource (261 pages) |
| Series |
The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis Ser., 1389-6784 ; v. 49 |
|
Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis ; v. 49.
|
| Contents |
Introduction / Nico Keilman and Stefano Mazzuco -- Stochastic Population Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Based on Evaluation by Experts / Rebecca Graziani -- Using Expert Elicitation to Build Long-Term Projection Assumptions / Patrice Dion, Nora Galbraith, and Elham Sirag -- Post-transitional Demography and Convergence: What Can We Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects? / Maria Castiglioni, Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna, and Maria Letizia Tanturri -- Projecting Proportionate Age-Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes / Emanuele Aliverti, Daniele Durante, and Bruno Scarpa -- A Three-Component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-Death Distributions / Ugofilippo Basellini and Carlo Giovanni Camarda -- Alternative Forecasts of Danish Life Expectancy / Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher, Søren Kjærgaard, Marius D. Pascariu, Još Manuel Aburto, Jes︢s-Adrìn Alvarez, Ugofilippo Basellini, Silvia Rizzi, and James W. Vaupel -- Coherent Mortality Forecasting with Standards: Low Mortality Serves as a Guide / Heather Booth -- European Mortality Forecasts: Are the Targets Still Moving? / Nico Keilman and Sigve Kristoffersen Bayesian Disaggregated Forecasts: Internal Migration in Iceland /Junni L. Zhang and John Bryant -- Forecasting Origin-Destination-Age-Sex Migration Flow Tables with Multiplicative Components / James Raymer, Xujing Bai, and Peter W. F. Smith -- New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Ageing /Sergei Scherbov and Warren C. Sanderson |
| Summary |
This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters |
| Analysis |
Demography |
|
Statistics for Social Sciences, Humanities, Law |
|
Population and Demography |
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Statistics in Social Sciences, Humanities, Law, Education, Behavorial Sciences, Public Policy |
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Population forecasting |
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Fertility |
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Mortality |
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Migration |
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Forecasting evaluation |
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Social Media data |
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Population statistics |
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Population modelling |
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Bayesian population models |
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Open access |
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Population & demography |
|
Social research & statistics |
| Notes |
Print version record |
| Subject |
Population forecasting.
|
|
Demography -- Statistical methods
|
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Demography -- Forecasting -- Methodology
|
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Social research & statistics.
|
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Population & demography.
|
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Social Science -- Statistics.
|
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Social Science -- Demography.
|
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Demography -- Statistical methods
|
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Population forecasting
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| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
Mazzuco, Stefano
|
|
Keilman, Nico.
|
| ISBN |
9783030424725 |
|
3030424723 |
|
