| Description |
1 online resource (37 pages) : color illustrations |
| Series |
IMF working paper, 1018-5941 ; WP/15/125 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/15/125.
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| Contents |
Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction and Motivation; II. Stylized facts; List of Figures; 1. Average Number of Natural Disasters per Yer; 2. Pacific Island Countries: Number of Natural Disasters per Yer; 3. Pacific Island Countries: Joint Probablity of Occurrence of a Natural Disaster; 4. Probability of Occurence of Natural Disasters; 5. Natural Disaster Risks -- World Risk Index, 2014; 6. Natural Disaster Risks -- World Risk Index, 2014, Top 16; 7. Damage and Losses of Extreme Damage Events, Top 25; 8. Average Annual Damage and Losses; List of Tables |
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Table 1. Pacific Island Countries -- Most Recent Natural Disasters Damage and LossesIII. Macroeconomic Impact of Natural Disasters; 9. GDP volatility and Intnesity of Natural Disasters 1990-2013; 10. Fiscal Balance and Intnesity of Natural Disasters 1990-2013; 11. Volatilty of Revenue (excl. Grants); 12. Revenue Volatilty and Intnesity of Natural Disasters 1990-2013; 13. Pacific Island Countries: International Reserves, March 2015; 14. Pacific Island Countries: Public and Publicly Guranteed Debt, 2014; 15. Pacific Island Countries: Fiscal Balance, 2014 |
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16. Pacific Island Countries: Headline Inflation, March 2015IV. Estimating the Macro-fiscal Impact of Natural Disasters; A. Econometric Analysis; 17. Pacific Island Countries: Short-Run Impact Natural Disasters on GDP Growth; 18. Response of Growth and Fiscal Aggregates to a Natural Disaster with Intensity Equivalent to 1 Percent of the Population Affected; 19. Response of Growth and Fiscal Aggregates to 1 Percent of GDP Damage Shock; 20. Pacific Island Countries: Long-Run Impact of Natural Disasters on Trend GDP |
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21. Pacific Island Countries: Long-Run Impact of Natural Disasters on Trend Growth22. Pacific Island Countries: Long-Run Impact of Natural Disasters on Trend Growth; B. Event analysis; 23. Real GDP Growth Before and After Natural Disasters- Event Analysis; 24. Fiscal Balance Before and After Natural Disasters- Event Analysis; Table 2. Illustraltion of Long-Run Impact of Natural Disasters on GDP Growth; V. Increasing Macro-Fiscal Resilience by Enhancing Disaster risk Management-A Multi-Pillar Framework; 25. Multi-Pillar Framework: Strengthening ex ante and ex post Resilience |
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VI. The Role of the IMFA. Surveillance; B. IMF Financial Support; C. Capacity Development; VII. Conclusions; Appendix A: Data Sources; A.1. Data Sources; Appendix B: Determinants of real revenue; B.1. Deternminants of Real Revenue; Appendix C: VAR Model; C.1. Unit Root Test; C.1. Robustnessto Lag Specification Response of Growthand Fiscal Aggregates to a Natural Disaster with Intensity Equivalent to 1 Percent of the Population Affected; C.2. Response of Growth and Fiscal Aggregates to a Natural Disaster with Intensity Equivalent to 1 Percent of the Population Affected |
| Summary |
Natural disasters and climate change are interrelated macro-critical issues affecting all Pacific small states to varying degrees. In addition to their devastating human costs, these events damage growth prospects and worsen countries' fiscal positions. This is the first cross-country IMF study assessing the impact of natural disasters on growth in the Pacific islands as a group. A panel VAR analysis suggests that, for damage and losses equivalent to 1 percent of GDP, growth drops by 0.7 percentage point in the year of the disaster. We also find that, during 1980-2014, trend growth was 0.7 percentage point lower than it would have been without natural disasters. The paper also discusses a multi-pillar framework to enhance resilience to natural disasters at the national, regional, and multilateral levels and the importance of enhancing countries' risk-management capacities. It highlights how this approach can provide a more strategic and less ad hoc framework for strengthening both ex ante and ex post resilience and what role the IMF can play. --Abstract |
| Notes |
"Prepared by Ezequiel Cabezon, Leni Hunter, Patrizia Tumbarello, Kazuaki Washimi, and Yiqun Wu." |
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"June 2015." |
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"Asia and Pacific Department." |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 36-37) |
| Notes |
Online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed June 22, 2015) |
| Subject |
Natural disasters -- Pacific Area
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Climatic changes -- Pacific Area
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Economic development -- Pacific Area
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Financial risk management -- Pacific Area
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Crisis management -- Economic aspects -- Pacific Area
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States, Small.
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Climatic changes
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Economic development
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Financial risk management
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Natural disasters
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States, Small
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Pacific Area
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
Cabezon, Ezequiel, author
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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Department.
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| ISBN |
9781513596068 |
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1513596063 |
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1513525794 |
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9781513525792 |
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