| Description |
1 online resource |
| Series |
IMF working paper ; no. 14/31 |
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IMF working paper ; no. 14/31.
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| Contents |
Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology for Testing for Forecast Smoothing; A. Average Forecasts; B. Individual Forecasts; III. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Empirical Findings; A. Average Forecasts; B. Individual Forecasts; Information Stickiness; Forecast Smoothing; V. Conclusion; Tables; 1. Basic Features of Forecast Data; 2. Revisions and Deviations from the Average Forecast; 3. Information Rigidity and Forecast Smoothing; 4. Country-Specific Estimates; Figures; 1. Root Mean Squared Forecast Errors over Forecast Horizons; 2. Mean Absolute Revisions over Forecast Horizons |
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3. Distribution of Forecast Revisions4. Distribution of Deviation of Individual Forecasts from Average; 5. Informational Rigidities at Different Forecast Horizons; 6. Fractions of Revised Individual Forecasts; 7. Distribution of Information Rigidity Coefficients across Countries; References |
| Summary |
We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior more in line "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002). While there are cross-country variations in information rigidity, there is no systematic difference between advanced and emerging economies |
| Notes |
Print version record |
| Subject |
International Monetary Fund.
|
| SUBJECT |
International Monetary Fund fast |
| Subject |
Consumer goods -- Prices -- Econometric models
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Economic development.
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International finance.
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economic development.
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Economic development
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International finance
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| Form |
Electronic book
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| Author |
International Monetary Fund, issuing body.
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| ISBN |
1306513502 |
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9781306513500 |
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