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Title Colombia : selected issues / [prepared by a staff team consisting of Lisandro Abrego and others]
Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2008]
©2008
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Description 1 online resource (75 pages) : color illustrations
Series IMF country report ; no. 08/32
IMF country report ; no. 08/32
Contents Cover; Contents; I. Achieving a Soft Landing: the Role of Fiscal Policy; A. Introduction; B. Methodology; C. Results: Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy Tightening; Figures; I. 1. Domestic Risk Premium and the Debt-to-GDP Ratio; 2. Exogenous Permanent Cut in Public Consumption of 0.5 Percent of GDP; 3. Exogenous Permanent Cut in Public Investment of 0.5 Percent of GDP; D. Results: Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability; 4. Private Savings Shock and Strength of Fiscal Policy Response; 5. Markup Shock and Strength of Fiscal Policy Response; 6. Efficiency Frontier: Markup Shock
2. GARCH Model for Daily Nominal Exchange Rate Returns: Instrumental Variable Estimation (Mean Returns Equation)3. GARCH Model for Daily Nominal Exchange Rate Returns: First and Subsequent Days Estimates; 4. GARCH Model for Daily Nominal Exchange Rate Returns: Instrumental Variable Estimation (Conditional Variance Equation); E. Limits to Sterilization and the Importance of Derivatives Markets in Blunting Foreign Exchange Operations; 6. Net Creditor Position of the Central Bank vis-à-vis the Financial Sector and Behavior of Interest Rates
2. Sensitivity of Domestic Growth to Key in External Variables in Österholm and Zettlemeyer (2007)3. Variance Decomposition for Colombia GDP Growth; 3. Decomposition of Growth; 4. Foreign and Domestic Factors in 2004-07 Growth; 5. Forecasting Performance of Alternative Models (Relative Mean Square Errors); 6. Unconditional Forecast; 7. WEO-Based Conditional Forecast; 8. Conditional Forecast Based on Hypothetical Shock to Global Growth; E. Summary and Final Remarks; III. Is Central Bank Intervention Effective Under Inflation Targeting Regimes? The Case of Colombia; A. Introduction
7. Efficiency Frontier for Different Monetary Policy Response Parameters8. Temporary Fall in Risk Premium by 100 Basis Points; 9. Risk Premium Shock and Strength of Fiscal Policy Response; E. Conclusions; II. External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from a Bayesian VAR Model; A. Introduction; B. The Model; C. Empirical Implementation; II. 1. Data; D. Results; Tables; II. 1. 95 Percent Prior Probability Intervals for Parameters Determining Steady-State Values; 2. Impulse Response Functions for Colombia GDP Growth
III. 1. Central Bank Intervention Operations and Movements in the Nominal Exchange Rate2. Central Bank Intervention and Movements in the Reference Rate; 3. Evolution of Inflation and Inflation Expectations vis-à-vis the Inflation Target; 4. Credibility of the Inflation Target; 5. Traded Value in Currency Derivatives Between Local Colombian Banks and Off-Shore Entities; B. Literature Review; C. Empirical Strategy; D. Summary of Results; III. 1. Determinants of Central Bank's Daily Discretionary Intervention in FX Spot Market
Summary 1. What are the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy, and how can fiscal policy help achieve a soft landing for an overheated economy? While a consensus regarding the role and effects of monetary policy has emerged, there is less agreement regarding fiscal policy. 2 A number of central banks have developed large scale models to predict the effects of monetary policy, but, as discussed in several recent papers, these models often cannot adequately replicate the dynamic effects of fiscal policy found in the empirical literature. 3 Conventional models used for monetary policy typically feature agents with infinite planning horizons, and predict that fiscal policy is ineffective in influencing aggregate demand and external current account balances
Notes "January 2008"--Cover
"Prepared by a staff team consisting of Lisandro Abrego, Herman Kamil, Pär Österholm, and Daniel Leigh."
"Prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with this member country."
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references
Notes Print version record
Subject Anti-inflationary policies -- Colombia.
Autoregression (Statistics) -- Econometric models.
Banks and banking, Central -- Colombia.
Fiscal policy -- Colombia.
Colombia -- Economic conditions -- 1970-
Colombia -- Economic policy.
Form Electronic book
Author Abrego, Lisandro, author
International Monetary Fund, Issuing body
ISBN 1280920092
1452729697
9781280920097
9781452729695