Title The impact of oil prices on the banking system in the GCC / by Padamja Khandelwal, Ken Miyajima, and Andre Santos

Published [Washington, D.C] : International Monetary Fund, Middle East and Central Asia Department, 2016 ©2016

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Description 1 online resource (23 pages) : illustrations Series IMF working paper, 1018-5941 ; WP/16/161 IMF working paper ; WP/16/161. Contents Cover; Contents; Abstract; I. Introduction; II. Econometric Analysis; A. Literature; B. Data; C.A multivariate model of NPLs; D.A panel VAR model of oil-macro-financial linkages; III. Movements in Bank capital and provisions in the GCC; IV. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. GCC: Dependence on Oil Revenues; 2. GCC Size of the Financial System; 3. Summary of Included GCC Banks; 4. Determinants of Bank NPL Ratios in the GCC; 5. Determinants of Bank NPL Ratios in the GCC-Alternative Approach; 6. Determinants of Bank NPL Ratios in the GCC-Alternative Approach 7. GCC: Estimated Panel VAR Coefficients and T-Statistics8. GCC: Response of Macro and Bank Level Variables; 9. Correlation of NPL Provisions and Capital Ratios with Indicators of Business and Financial Cycles: Country Level Analysis; 10. Correlation of NPL Provisions and Capital Ratios with Indicators of Business and Financial Cycles: Bank Level Analysis; Figures; 1. WTI Oil Prices; 2. Growth Rates of Bank Credit and Deposits in the GCC Countries; 3. Macroeconomic and Bank Level Variables; 4. Distribution of NPL Ratios in GCC 5. Dynamics of NPL Ratios After a 50 Percent Decline in Oil Prices and 3 Percentage Point Reduction in Nonoil GDP Growth in t=06. GCC: Response of Macro and Bank Level Variables; Annex; A1. GCC Banks Included Econometric Analyses Summary "This paper examines the links between global oil price movements and macroeconomic and financial developments in the GCC. Using a range of multivariate panel approaches, including a panel vector autoregression approach, it finds strong empirical evidence of feedback loops between oil price movements, bank balance sheets, and asset prices. Empirical evidence also suggests that bank capital and provisioning have behaved countercyclically through the cycle."--Absract Notes "August 2016." Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 21-22) Subject Petroleum products -- Prices -- Gulf States -- Econometric models Banks and banking -- Gulf States -- Econometric models Bank loans -- Gulf States -- Econometric models Bank loans -- Econometric models Banks and banking -- Econometric models Petroleum products -- Prices -- Econometric models United States -- Gulf States Form Electronic book Author Miyajima, Ken, 1971- author. Santos, André, author International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Department, issuing body. ISBN 1475539630 9781475539639 1475523394 9781475523393 ISSN 1018-5941

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