Executive summary. -- Introduction. -- I. The evolving geopolitical context of the missile threat. -- II. Responding to the challenge: priorities for NATO's air defence. -- III. Next steps for NATO. -- Conclusion
Summary
Since the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, NATO has attempted to retool itself to gradually prepare for great power competition. The Alliance has undertaken a number of steps consistent with the NATO Readiness Initiative to generate the capacity to respond to escalation on its eastern flank. NATO’s forthcoming future warfighting Capstone Concept will also emphasise countering threats emanating from Russia. However, this paper argues that NATO’s approach to air and missile defence has not kept pace with this broader transformation. Given the importance of long-range precision strike assets to Russia’s strategic and operational frameworks, this represents a gap in the Alliance’s posture and thus its credibility. This paper identifies the shortcomings that would prevent NATO from mounting a credible defence against the multi-tiered salvos that Russia can generate. The paper also highlights the changes NATO needs to make to its air defence system so that it can respond to the twin challenges of a peer competitor and sub-peer threats
