Description |
111 pages : illustrations |
Analysis |
Asia |
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Economic development |
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Federal issue |
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Forecasting |
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Natural resources |
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Pacific Rim |
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Political change |
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Regional security |
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Technology transfer |
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Terrorism |
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Trends to 2020 |
Notes |
"A deliberately ambitious objective was set for the 1997 Conference of the Australian College of Defence and Strategic Studies - to define the broad security environment in Asia and the Pacific, twenty years from now. Given that even short-term forecasting is an endeavour more famous for its failures than its successes, many would regard an effort like this as doomed from the outset |
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Because an infinite range of alternative futures exists, it would be futile to attempt to define either precisely or confidently what will be the social, political, economic and strategic situation two decades ahead. We can, however, be sure that whatever the actual future turns out to be, it will be the product of the interactions which take place among economic, social and cultural factors, geography, scientific developments, and the influence of national and international political figures and institutions. So, if we can gain a good understanding of the parameters within which change takes place, the fundamentals of our foreign and defence policies can be shaped accordingly |
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Clarification of the future strategic environment, however, is crucially important for defence and security planners. If they choose to disregard what the future may have in store, they leave the protection and advancement of important national interests to chance - an unacceptable derogation of their responsibilities. It is essential therefore that they seek to acquire as sound an understanding as they can of the shape of things to come |
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Contents: Thinking about ... a violent yesterday to a peaceful tomorrow - the need for new approaches -- Long-term income, population and food interrelationships in the Asia-Pacific region -- Security implications of economic change in the region -- Regional environmental trends and security in tha Asia-Pacific region -- Developments in science and technology -- Defence applications of new technolgy -- Social and political change in Asia and the Pacific -- The smog of terrorism: terrorism and internal security: the next 20 years -- The outlook for the Asia-Pacific region |
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The Australian College of Defence and Strategic Studies was extremely fortunate in securing a very distinguished group of speakers to present papers and lead discussion on these core issues at its 1997 Conference. The speakers also joined in a panel discussion, to explore some of the wider security implications for Asia and the Pacific of the various issues raised in the course of the Conference. Their papers are all contained in this compendium, together with an edited transcript of the panel |
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discussion. We believe the documents will serve as an excellent reference work, not only for those involved in defence and security planning but also for others who want insight into the regional environment in the years ahead." -- Foreword, by Ross Thomas, Director of Studies, Australian College of Defence and Strategic Studies |
Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references |
Subject |
National security -- East Asia -- Forecasting -- Congresses.
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National security -- Pacific Area -- Forecasting -- Congresses.
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SUBJECT |
Far East -- Strategic aspects http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85040530 -- Forecasting http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh00005779 -- Congresses.
http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh99001533
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Pacific Area http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85096445 -- Strategic aspects http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh2001008690 -- Forecasting http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh00005779 -- Congresses.
http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh99001533
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Genre/Form |
Conference papers and proceedings.
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Author |
Australian College of Defence and Strategic Studies
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