Title Assessing the evolving Russian nuclear threat / by Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Michael Kofman, Nicholas Lokker and Heli Hautala

Published Washington, DC : Center for a New American Security, 2023 ©2023

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Description 1 online resource (19 pages) Contents Executive summary. -- Introduction. -- Changes observed since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. -- Anticipating Russian actions. -- Implications for the United States and NATO. -- Conclusion Summary Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its nuclear rhetoric has become more permissive, more inconsistent, and more instrumental. Russia has also placed greater emphasis on military exercises involving nuclear-capable weapons, and it has altered policies and planning for its nuclear forces. Although it is too soon to draw definitive conclusions as the war in Ukraine is still ongoing and the lessons that Russia draws from it uncertain, the changes in Russia’s approach to nuclear weapons since its invasion suggest that Russia is likely to adopt a more assertive nuclear force posture, especially with respect to its non-strategic nuclear weapons, in order to signal that the country will no longer be a status quo power and increase the credibility of its nuclear threats. Russia is also likely to increase its efforts to test NATO cohesion—potentially through greater nuclear provocations and/or by signaling an insincere willingness to engage in forms of arms control or cooperative threat reduction—and continue to look for opportunities to leverage nuclear weapons to signal great-power status. In a future war with NATO, Russia would likely perceive the need to use nuclear weapons earlier in the conflict, either to seek victory against superior NATO conventional forces through nuclear first use on the battlefield, or to prevent defeat by those NATO forces Notes "October 2023"--Cover Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages 15-19) Notes Description based on online resource; title from PDF cover page (CNAS, viewed November 6, 2023) Subject Nuclear warfare -- Government policy -- Risk assessment -- Russia (Federation) Nuclear weapons -- Government policy -- Risk assessment -- Russia (Federation) Military policy. SUBJECT Russia (Federation) -- Military policy Subject Russia (Federation) Form Electronic book Author Kofman, Michael, author Lokker, Nicholas, author Hautala, Heli, author Center for a New American Security, publisher.

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