| Description |
1 online resource (42 pages) : colored illustrations |
| Series |
IMF working paper ; WP/16/126 |
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IMF working paper ; WP/16/126
|
| Summary |
Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this empirical paper, we use multivariate, possibly time-varying, time-series models and show that changes in shocks are a more salient feature of the data than changes in coefficients. Hence, the GFC did not break the Phillips curve. By estimating variations of a regime-switching model, we show that allowing for regime switching solely in coefficients of the policy rule would maximize the fit. Additionally, using a data-rich reduced-form model we compute conditional forecast scenarios. We show that financial and external variables have the highest forecasting power for inflation and unemployment, post-GFC |
| Notes |
"July 2016." |
|
At head of title: International Monetary Fund, Strategy, Policy and Reviews Department |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 19-22) |
| Notes |
Description based on online resource; title from pdf title page (IMF.org Web site, viewed September 9, 2016) |
| Subject |
Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 -- Econometric models
|
|
Phillips curve.
|
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Economic forecasting -- United States -- Econometric models
|
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Econometric models.
|
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Economic forecasting -- Econometric models.
|
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Phillips curve.
|
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United States.
|
| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
Sanjani, Marzie Taheri, author, (IMF staff)
|
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International Monetary Fund, publisher
|
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International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, issuing body
|
| ISBN |
9781498348645 |
|
1498348645 |
|
