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E-book
Author Estevão, Marcello M., author

Title Has the great recession raised U.S. structural unemployment? / Marcello Estevão and Evridiki Tsounta
Published [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2011]
©2011
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Description 1 online resource (47 pages) : color illustrations, maps
Series IMF working paper ; WP/11/105
IMF working paper ; WP/11/105
Contents Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. A Dismal Labor Market Situation; 1. Unemployment Developments; 2. Unemployment and Employment by Educational Attainment; III. Are Skill Mismatches on the Rise?; 3. Skill Mismatch Index by State, 1990-2010; 4. Skill Mismatch Index Level by State, 2010; 5. Change in Skill Mismatch Index, 2007-2010; 6. Labor and Housing Market Dispersion; IV. Housing Woes across U.S. States; 7. Decline in FHFA House Prices Since Peak; 8. Percent Change in Case-Shiller House Price Index Since Peak; 9. Increase in Foreclosure Rates, 2005-2010
10. Composite Effect of the Crisis Since Onset of the Recession11. Geographic Mismatches; V. Is Structural Unemployment on the Rise?; 1. Okun Law Estimates with Alternative Measures of State-Level GDP; 2. Explaining State-Level Unemployment Rates -- Using Foreclosure Rates as a Proxy for State Housing Market Conditions; 3. Explaining State-Level Unemployment Rates -- Using Housing Prices as a Proxy for State Housing Market Conditions; 4. Explaining State-Level Unemployment Rates Using Housing Prices as a Proxy for State Housing Market Conditions Alternative Measure of Skill Mismatch Shocks
5. Explaining State-Level Unemployment Rates Using Foreclosure Rates as Proxy for State Housing Market Conditions Alternative Measure of Skill Mismatch Shocks12. Estimated Equilibrium Unemployment Rate at End-2010 by State; VI. Is Policy Intervention Warranted?; VII. Conclusions; A. Data Description; B. Calculating the Skills Mismatch Index (SMI); References; Footnotes
Summary The recent crisis has had differential effects across U.S. states and industries causing a wide geographic dispersion in skill mismatches and housing market performance. We document these facts and, using data from the 50 states plus D.C from 1991 to 2008, we present econometric evidence that supports that changes in state-level unemployment rates are linked to skill mismatches and housing market performance even after controlling for cyclical effects. This result suggests some causality going from mismatches and housing conditions to unemployment rates. The numerical estimates imply that the structural unemployment rate in 2010 was about 1 percentage points higher than before the onset of the housing market meltdown at end-2006. Reversing this increase may require targeted active labor market policies and measures to expedite the adjustment in housing markets, as our results suggest weak housing market conditions interact negatively with skill mismatches to produce higher unemployment rates in the United States
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references
Subject Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009.
Structural unemployment -- United States -- Econometric models.
Form Electronic book
Author Tsounta, Evridiki, author
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Department, issuing body
ISBN 1283563517
1455256366 (electronic bk.)
145526640X
9781283563512
9781455256365 (electronic bk.)
9781455266401