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Book Cover
E-book
Author Razzak, Weshah

Title The Future of Economic Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council States : Evidence-Based Policy Analysis
Published Milton : Taylor & Francis Group, 2022

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Description 1 online resource (177 pages)
Series Routledge Studies in the Modern World Economy Ser
Routledge Studies in the Modern World Economy Ser
Contents Cover -- Half Title -- Series -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Preface -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Some Stylized Facts -- Oil Revenues Dominate -- Large Shares of Services -- Inefficiency -- Declining Marginal Productivity of Labor and Capital -- Real Depreciation of the Currency -- High Oil Rent -- Small Shares of Agriculture -- Oil Prices, Domestic Prices, and GDP Highly Correlated -- Revenues and Oil Prices Highly Correlated -- High Oil Breakeven Prices -- Government Expenditures and Oil Prices Highly Correlated
Savings and Oil Prices Highly Correlated -- Private Investments, Private Capital Stock, and Oil Prices Correlated -- Net Exports and Oil Prices Highly Correlated -- External Debt and Oil Prices Negatively Correlated -- Young Population -- High Literacy Rates, Low-Quality Human Capital, and High Female Achievements -- Very Large Foreign Labor Force -- High Youth Unemployment Rates -- Symmetrical Exogenous Shocks -- Monetary Policy Not Independent -- Absolute Monarchies -- 3 The Oil Dependency Dilemma -- Estimating the Share of Oil in Real Output
Oil Production -- Global Oil Consumption Relationship in the Long Run -- The Short-Run Dynamic Relationship and Stress Tests -- Technical Appendix 3.1: The VAR -- Technical Appendix 3.2: The Solver -- Appendix 3.3: The Estimated SVARs -- 4 The External Debt -- The Debt Stylized Facts -- Economic Theories -- Computing the Fiscal Adjustment Needed to Achieve a Sustainable Debt Target -- Appendix 4.1: U.S. Debt Uncorrelated With Real Macroeconomic Variables -- Technical Appendix 4.2: Sustainable Debt -- 5 Is the Level of Government Spending Optimal? -- The Growth Model
The Empirical Results of Estimating the Growth Equation -- The Current Account Equation -- Appendix 5.1: Government Spending Does Not Crowd Out Private Investments -- 6 Can Taxes Resolve the Economic Problems? -- The Model -- Empirical Evidence -- Appendix 6.1: The Estimated SVAR Without Income Tax -- 7 Savings, Productivity, and Other Structural Issues -- A Case for Personal "Household" Saving -- Productivity -- Other Research Issues Pertinent to Saving and Productivity -- 8 Final Remarks -- References -- Index
Notes Print version record
Subject Petroleum industry and trade -- Persian Gulf Region
Petroleum industry and trade.
Persian Gulf Region.
Form Electronic book
ISBN 9781000618556
1000618552