| Description |
1 online resource (51 pages) |
| Series |
IMF Working Papers |
|
IMF Working Papers
|
| Contents |
I. Introduction; II. Methodology and Data; A.A Dynamic Factor Model; B. Advantages of Dynamic Factor Models; C. Variance Decompositions; D. Data; III. Dynamic Factors and Episodes of Business Cycles; A. Evolution of the Global and Group-Specific Factors; B. Country Factors and Domestic Economic Activity; IV. Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations: 1960-2005; A. Common Cycles: Global and Country-Specific Factors; B. National Cycles: Country and Idiosyncratic Factors; C. Summary; V. Globalization and the Evolution of International Business Cycles; A. Convergence or Decoupling? |
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B. Consumption ComovementC. Dynamics of Investment; D. Summary; VI. Sensitivity Experiments; A. Results for Sub-groups of Countries; B. Changes in the Importance of Global and Group Factors; C. Implications of Crises; D. Alternative Breakpoints; VII. Conclusion; References; Appendices; I.A Bayesian Approach to Estimating Dynamic Factor Models; II. Testing for Structural Breaks; III. List of Countries; Tables; 1. Variance Decompositions-All Groups; 2. Variance Decompositions-Industrial Country Subsamples; 3. Variance Decompositions-All Groups |
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4. Variance Decompositions-Industrial Country Subsamples5. Variance Decompositions-Emerging Economy Subsamples; 6. Variance Decompositions-Other Developing Economy Subsamples; Figures; 1. Global and Group-Specific Factors; 2. Output Growth and Estimated Factors for Selected Countries; 3. Average Variance Explained by the Global and Group Factors; 4. Average Variance Explained by Global and Group Factors; 5. Average Variance Explained by Global Factor; 6. Average Variance Explained by Group Specific Factors; 7. Average Variance Explained by Global and Group-Specific Factors-All Countries |
| Summary |
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are comm |
| Notes |
8. Output Variance Explained by Global Factor9. Output Variance Explained by Group Factor |
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Print version record |
| Subject |
Business cycles -- Econometric models
|
|
Globalization.
|
|
globalism.
|
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Business cycles -- Econometric models
|
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Globalization
|
| Form |
Electronic book
|
| Author |
Prasad, Eswar
|
|
Otrok, Christopher
|
| ISBN |
9781451914542 |
|
1451914547 |
|
